Data
How many times as often heat, rain and drought extremes occur at each level of global warming, modelled (IPCC AR6)
How many times as often an extreme that came once in 10 years (or once in 50) in the second half of the 19th century (1851–1900 for heat and rain, 1850–1900 for drought), a climate without human influence, occurs at global warming levels of 1, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 °C: the hottest day of the year over land (once-in-10 and once-in-50-year events), the wettest day of the year over land, and agricultural and ecological drought in the regions projected to dry. Modelled: the median of the CMIP6 climate models assessed for Figure SPM.6 of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021), with the 5–95% range the figure shows (a range reaching below 1 includes no increase at all). These are model estimates for each level of warming, not counts of observed events, and a warming level is not a year: every value is dated 2021, the year of the assessment. The published figure labels the 1 °C level 'Present'; the world has warmed further since, so 1 °C is not today's warming, and nothing between levels is interpolated. The 3 °C level is in the data but not in the published figure. Drought covers 16 drying regions, not the whole world.
Latest value
2.78×
Global land for the hottest and the wettest day of the year. For drought, the AR6 regions projected to dry: the caption lists 17 (W. and C. North America, N. and S. Central America, the Caribbean, N., N.E., S.W. and S. South America, the South American Monsoon, West and Central Europe, the Mediterranean, W. and E. Southern Africa, Madagascar, E. and S. Australia) and the Caribbean is not included in the calculation, so 16., 2021 (projection). Version v20210809.
How many times as often heat, rain and drought extremes occur at each level of global warming, modelled (IPCC AR6) (times as often as in the second half of the 19th century)
Show as a table
| Period | Extreme | Global warming level | Value (×) | Range | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event | 1 °C of warming | 2.78 | 1.81 to 3.22 | projection |
| 2021 | Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event | 1.5 °C of warming | 4.11 | 2.83 to 4.72 | projection |
| 2021 | Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event | 2 °C of warming | 5.57 | 3.77 to 6.03 | projection |
| 2021 | Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event | 3 °C of warming (in the data, not in the published figure) | 8.12 | 6.23 to 8.64 | projection |
| 2021 | Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event | 4 °C of warming | 9.39 | 8.25 to 9.63 | projection |
| 2021 | Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-50-year event | 1 °C of warming | 4.81 | 2.28 to 6.37 | projection |
| 2021 | Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-50-year event | 1.5 °C of warming | 8.64 | 4.26 to 10.74 | projection |
| 2021 | Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-50-year event | 2 °C of warming | 13.92 | 6.89 to 16.59 | projection |
| 2021 | Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-50-year event | 3 °C of warming (in the data, not in the published figure) | 27.40 | 15.05 to 31.31 | projection |
| 2021 | Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-50-year event | 4 °C of warming | 39.19 | 27.03 to 41.37 | projection |
| 2021 | Wettest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event | 1 °C of warming | 1.32 | 1.24 to 1.42 | projection |
| 2021 | Wettest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event | 1.5 °C of warming | 1.53 | 1.40 to 1.67 | projection |
| 2021 | Wettest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event | 2 °C of warming | 1.74 | 1.56 to 1.98 | projection |
| 2021 | Wettest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event | 3 °C of warming (in the data, not in the published figure) | 2.21 | 1.93 to 2.69 | projection |
| 2021 | Wettest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event | 4 °C of warming | 2.71 | 2.31 to 3.58 | projection |
| 2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought in drying regions, once-in-10-year event | 1 °C of warming | 1.70 | 0.68 to 4.08 | projection |
| 2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought in drying regions, once-in-10-year event | 1.5 °C of warming | 2.04 | 1.02 to 5.10 | projection |
| 2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought in drying regions, once-in-10-year event | 2 °C of warming | 2.38 | 1.33 to 5.83 | projection |
| 2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought in drying regions, once-in-10-year event | 3 °C of warming (in the data, not in the published figure) | 3.23 | 1.36 to 7.68 | projection |
| 2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought in drying regions, once-in-10-year event | 4 °C of warming | 4.08 | 1.70 to 7.21 | projection |
Where it comes from
- Producer
- IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit; archived by the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis · IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.6 data
- Version
- v20210809
- Fetched
- 2026-10-12 (automatically), 195 bytes
- Fingerprint
- sha256 0e5c0403b26a65d8079ea80844df7febcbe7ab47520ccd6e6dda2e0d81bee758ETag "610d7c4b-c3" · Last-Modified Fri, 06 Aug 2021 18:15:39 GMT
- Cite the producer
- Li, C.; Hauser, M. (2021): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.6 (v20210809). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 2026-10-12. doi:10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
- Producer
- IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit; archived by the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis · IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.6 data
- Version
- v20210809
- Fetched
- 2026-10-12 (automatically), 210 bytes
- Fingerprint
- sha256 fa0bae3d1795cc3cc2a7e3f3e931cab8e87b343a6569a82a2ab98f0085de41a6ETag "610d7c4d-d2" · Last-Modified Fri, 06 Aug 2021 18:15:41 GMT
- Cite the producer
- Li, C.; Hauser, M. (2021): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.6 (v20210809). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 2026-10-12. doi:10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
- Producer
- IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit; archived by the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis · IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.6 data
- Version
- v20210809
- Fetched
- 2026-10-12 (automatically), 195 bytes
- Fingerprint
- sha256 295a667b35b198aa56a21e5bc99e635f36af35fc3a52badda0270e3771c2246cETag "610d7c50-c3" · Last-Modified Fri, 06 Aug 2021 18:15:44 GMT
- Copies
- No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
- Cite the producer
- Li, C.; Hauser, M. (2021): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.6 (v20210809). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 2026-10-12. doi:10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
- Producer
- IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit; archived by the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis · IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.6 data
- Version
- v20210809
- Fetched
- 2026-10-12 (automatically), 189 bytes
- Fingerprint
- sha256 f15a0ab6987ee51b02f260e6145cf221fb7d8ef59fc167858fac7744c9d5e7acETag "610d7c51-bd" · Last-Modified Fri, 06 Aug 2021 18:15:45 GMT
- Cite the producer
- Li, C.; Hauser, M. (2021): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.6 (v20210809). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 2026-10-12. doi:10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
- Producer
- IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit; archived by the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis · IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.6 data
- Version
- v20210809
- Fetched
- 2026-10-12 (automatically), 9,930 bytes
- Fingerprint
- sha256 a9a555f05c7b92d3bdd5e055469c8d8ebce68d00d4143b6b06eaa8c308a942ecETag "610d7c4a-26ca" · Last-Modified Fri, 06 Aug 2021 18:15:38 GMT
- Cite the producer
- Li, C.; Hauser, M. (2021): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.6 (v20210809). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 2026-10-12. doi:10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
What was done to it
Read the four frequency files of Figure SPM.6 (CEDA version v20210809: panel_a/TXx_freq_change_10_year_event.csv, panel_b/TXx_freq_change_50_year_event.csv, panel_c/Rx1day_freq_change_10_year_event.csv, panel_d/drought_freq_change_10_year_event.csv). Each gives, at global warming levels of 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 °C, how many times as often an extreme that occurred once in 10 (or 50) years in 1850–1900 occurs: the median of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble and its 17th, 83rd, 5th and 95th percentiles. Checked that the five percentiles are in order in every row.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm6.py · code sha256 59295a3537082523… · inputs 0e5c0403b26a… fa0bae3d1795… 295a667b35b1… f15a0ab6987e… a9a555f05c7b…
Published the median as the value and the 5th to 95th percentile as the range (very likely range), as the published figure shows them; the 17th–83rd percentiles are not published. Values are as printed in the files. Each is dated 2021, the year of the assessment: the warming level, not the date, is what varies. The 3.0 °C level is in the files but not in the published figure, whose caption lists 1, 1.5, 2 and 4 °C; its label says so.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm6.py · code sha256 59295a3537082523… · inputs 0e5c0403b26a… fa0bae3d1795… 295a667b35b1… f15a0ab6987e… a9a555f05c7b…
Checked against metadata.yaml: each file is listed under its figure panel (the Readme's panel letters for precipitation and drought are out of date); the caption gives the base periods used in the labels (1851–1900 for heat and rain, 1850–1900 for drought); and it lists 17 drying regions for drought, of which the Caribbean is not included in the calculation, so the drought values cover 16.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm6.py · code sha256 59295a3537082523… · inputs 0e5c0403b26a… fa0bae3d1795… 295a667b35b1… f15a0ab6987e… a9a555f05c7b…
Checked against the published figure (IPCC AR6 WGI SPM, p. 18): each of the 16 ranges it prints equals the 5th and 95th percentiles rounded half up to one decimal, and each printed median is a publisher cross-check.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm6.py · code sha256 59295a3537082523… · inputs 0e5c0403b26a… fa0bae3d1795… 295a667b35b1… f15a0ab6987e… a9a555f05c7b…
What it covers
- Geography
- Global land for the hottest and the wettest day of the year. For drought, the AR6 regions projected to dry: the caption lists 17 (W. and C. North America, N. and S. Central America, the Caribbean, N., N.E., S.W. and S. South America, the South American Monsoon, West and Central Europe, the Mediterranean, W. and E. Southern Africa, Madagascar, E. and S. Australia) and the Caribbean is not included in the calculation, so 16.
- Baseline
- 1851–1900 (heat and rain) or 1850–1900 (drought)
- Basis
- CMIP6 multi-model ensemble under several SSP scenarios, at global warming levels relative to 1850–1900; extremes defined at model grid-box scale. Value: the ensemble median; range: its 5th to 95th percentile (very likely range), as in the published figure. Projected changes in the IPCC's words, including at 1 °C; dated 2021, the year of the assessment.
- Unit
- times as often as in the second half of the 19th century (×)