{
  "attribution": "Li & Hauser (2021), data for IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.6 (v20210809), NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, doi:10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4; IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001. CC BY 4.0.",
  "description": "How many times as often an extreme that came once in 10 years (or once in 50) in the second half of the 19th century (1851–1900 for heat and rain, 1850–1900 for drought), a climate without human influence, occurs at global warming levels of 1, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 °C: the hottest day of the year over land (once-in-10 and once-in-50-year events), the wettest day of the year over land, and agricultural and ecological drought in the regions projected to dry. Modelled: the median of the CMIP6 climate models assessed for Figure SPM.6 of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021), with the 5–95% range the figure shows (a range reaching below 1 includes no increase at all). These are model estimates for each level of warming, not counts of observed events, and a warming level is not a year: every value is dated 2021, the year of the assessment. The published figure labels the 1 °C level 'Present'; the world has warmed further since, so 1 °C is not today's warming, and nothing between levels is interpolated. The 3 °C level is in the data but not in the published figure. Drought covers 16 drying regions, not the whole world.",
  "dimensions": [
    {
      "id": "extreme",
      "label": "Extreme",
      "values": [
        {"id": "hot-10yr", "label": "Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event"},
        {"id": "hot-50yr", "label": "Hottest day of the year over land, once-in-50-year event"},
        {"id": "rain-10yr", "label": "Wettest day of the year over land, once-in-10-year event"},
        {"id": "drought-10yr", "label": "Agricultural and ecological drought in drying regions, once-in-10-year event"}
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "level",
      "label": "Global warming level",
      "values": [
        {"id": "1.0", "label": "1 °C of warming"},
        {"id": "1.5", "label": "1.5 °C of warming"},
        {"id": "2.0", "label": "2 °C of warming"},
        {"id": "3.0", "label": "3 °C of warming (in the data, not in the published figure)"},
        {"id": "4.0", "label": "4 °C of warming"}
      ]
    }
  ],
  "display": {
    "decimals": 2
  },
  "geo_coverage": "global-only",
  "headline_entity": "WLD",
  "id": "extremes.ipcc-ar6.frequency-by-warming-level",
  "kind": "series",
  "latest": {
    "age_bp": null,
    "dims": {
      "extreme": "hot-10yr",
      "level": "1.0"
    },
    "entity": "WLD",
    "period": "2021",
    "status": "projection",
    "value": 2.78
  },
  "licence": {
    "name": "CC BY 4.0",
    "spdx": "CC-BY-4.0",
    "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
  },
  "licence_class": "open",
  "notes": [],
  "notice": null,
  "origins": [
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    {"acquisition": "automatic", "artifact_id": "rx1day-freq-10yr", "bytes": 195, "citation_full": "Li, C.; Hauser, M. (2021): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.6 (v20210809). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 2026-10-12. doi:10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.", "date_accessed": "2026-10-12", "date_published": "2021-08-09", "doi": "10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4", "etag": "\"610d7c50-c3\"", "last_modified": "Fri, 06 Aug 2021 18:15:44 GMT", "licence": {"name": "CC BY 4.0", "spdx": "CC-BY-4.0", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"}, "producer": "IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit; archived by the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis", "r2_url": "https://files.environmentdashboard.org/raw/295a667b35b198aa56a21e5bc99e635f36af35fc3a52badda0270e3771c2246c.zst", "sha256": "295a667b35b198aa56a21e5bc99e635f36af35fc3a52badda0270e3771c2246c", "source_id": "ipcc-ar6-wg1-spm6", "title": "IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.6 data", "url_download": "https://dap.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ar6_wg1/data/spm/spm_06/v20210809/panel_c/Rx1day_freq_change_10_year_event.csv", "url_main": "https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4/", "version_producer": "v20210809", "wayback_url": null},
    {"acquisition": "automatic", "artifact_id": "drought-freq-10yr", "bytes": 189, "citation_full": "Li, C.; Hauser, M. (2021): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.6 (v20210809). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 2026-10-12. doi:10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.", "date_accessed": "2026-10-12", "date_published": "2021-08-09", "doi": "10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4", "etag": "\"610d7c51-bd\"", "last_modified": "Fri, 06 Aug 2021 18:15:45 GMT", "licence": {"name": "CC BY 4.0", "spdx": "CC-BY-4.0", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"}, "producer": "IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit; archived by the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis", "r2_url": "https://files.environmentdashboard.org/raw/f15a0ab6987ee51b02f260e6145cf221fb7d8ef59fc167858fac7744c9d5e7ac.zst", "sha256": "f15a0ab6987ee51b02f260e6145cf221fb7d8ef59fc167858fac7744c9d5e7ac", "source_id": "ipcc-ar6-wg1-spm6", "title": "IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.6 data", "url_download": "https://dap.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ar6_wg1/data/spm/spm_06/v20210809/panel_d/drought_freq_change_10_year_event.csv", "url_main": "https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4/", "version_producer": "v20210809", "wayback_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261012143121/https://dap.ceda.ac.uk/badc/ar6_wg1/data/spm/spm_06/v20210809/panel_d/drought_freq_change_10_year_event.csv"},
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  ],
  "processing": [
    {
      "description": "Read the four frequency files of Figure SPM.6 (CEDA version v20210809: panel_a/TXx_freq_change_10_year_event.csv, panel_b/TXx_freq_change_50_year_event.csv, panel_c/Rx1day_freq_change_10_year_event.csv, panel_d/drought_freq_change_10_year_event.csv). Each gives, at global warming levels of 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 °C, how many times as often an extreme that occurred once in 10 (or 50) years in 1850–1900 occurs: the median of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble and its 17th, 83rd, 5th and 95th percentiles. Checked that the five percentiles are in order in every row.",
      "inputs": ["0e5c0403b26a65d8079ea80844df7febcbe7ab47520ccd6e6dda2e0d81bee758", "fa0bae3d1795cc3cc2a7e3f3e931cab8e87b343a6569a82a2ab98f0085de41a6", "295a667b35b198aa56a21e5bc99e635f36af35fc3a52badda0270e3771c2246c", "f15a0ab6987ee51b02f260e6145cf221fb7d8ef59fc167858fac7744c9d5e7ac", "a9a555f05c7b92d3bdd5e055469c8d8ebce68d00d4143b6b06eaa8c308a942ec"],
      "lock_sha256": "540d352a2533554fbfd8f392b6bae78d1f9332effe729c06b520b2a630450330",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm6.py",
      "transform_sha256": "59295a35370825239e2ca1bb48af85b2c95a2552f253a2344d80299585c830d3"
    },
    {
      "description": "Published the median as the value and the 5th to 95th percentile as the range (very likely range), as the published figure shows them; the 17th–83rd percentiles are not published. Values are as printed in the files. Each is dated 2021, the year of the assessment: the warming level, not the date, is what varies. The 3.0 °C level is in the files but not in the published figure, whose caption lists 1, 1.5, 2 and 4 °C; its label says so.",
      "inputs": ["0e5c0403b26a65d8079ea80844df7febcbe7ab47520ccd6e6dda2e0d81bee758", "fa0bae3d1795cc3cc2a7e3f3e931cab8e87b343a6569a82a2ab98f0085de41a6", "295a667b35b198aa56a21e5bc99e635f36af35fc3a52badda0270e3771c2246c", "f15a0ab6987ee51b02f260e6145cf221fb7d8ef59fc167858fac7744c9d5e7ac", "a9a555f05c7b92d3bdd5e055469c8d8ebce68d00d4143b6b06eaa8c308a942ec"],
      "lock_sha256": "540d352a2533554fbfd8f392b6bae78d1f9332effe729c06b520b2a630450330",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm6.py",
      "transform_sha256": "59295a35370825239e2ca1bb48af85b2c95a2552f253a2344d80299585c830d3"
    },
    {
      "description": "Checked against metadata.yaml: each file is listed under its figure panel (the Readme's panel letters for precipitation and drought are out of date); the caption gives the base periods used in the labels (1851–1900 for heat and rain, 1850–1900 for drought); and it lists 17 drying regions for drought, of which the Caribbean is not included in the calculation, so the drought values cover 16.",
      "inputs": ["0e5c0403b26a65d8079ea80844df7febcbe7ab47520ccd6e6dda2e0d81bee758", "fa0bae3d1795cc3cc2a7e3f3e931cab8e87b343a6569a82a2ab98f0085de41a6", "295a667b35b198aa56a21e5bc99e635f36af35fc3a52badda0270e3771c2246c", "f15a0ab6987ee51b02f260e6145cf221fb7d8ef59fc167858fac7744c9d5e7ac", "a9a555f05c7b92d3bdd5e055469c8d8ebce68d00d4143b6b06eaa8c308a942ec"],
      "lock_sha256": "540d352a2533554fbfd8f392b6bae78d1f9332effe729c06b520b2a630450330",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm6.py",
      "transform_sha256": "59295a35370825239e2ca1bb48af85b2c95a2552f253a2344d80299585c830d3"
    },
    {
      "description": "Checked against the published figure (IPCC AR6 WGI SPM, p. 18): each of the 16 ranges it prints equals the 5th and 95th percentiles rounded half up to one decimal, and each printed median is a publisher cross-check.",
      "inputs": ["0e5c0403b26a65d8079ea80844df7febcbe7ab47520ccd6e6dda2e0d81bee758", "fa0bae3d1795cc3cc2a7e3f3e931cab8e87b343a6569a82a2ab98f0085de41a6", "295a667b35b198aa56a21e5bc99e635f36af35fc3a52badda0270e3771c2246c", "f15a0ab6987ee51b02f260e6145cf221fb7d8ef59fc167858fac7744c9d5e7ac", "a9a555f05c7b92d3bdd5e055469c8d8ebce68d00d4143b6b06eaa8c308a942ec"],
      "lock_sha256": "540d352a2533554fbfd8f392b6bae78d1f9332effe729c06b520b2a630450330",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm6.py",
      "transform_sha256": "59295a35370825239e2ca1bb48af85b2c95a2552f253a2344d80299585c830d3"
    }
  ],
  "published_value": null,
  "schema_version": 1,
  "scope": {
    "baseline": "1851–1900 (heat and rain) or 1850–1900 (drought)",
    "basis": "CMIP6 multi-model ensemble under several SSP scenarios, at global warming levels relative to 1850–1900; extremes defined at model grid-box scale. Value: the ensemble median; range: its 5th to 95th percentile (very likely range), as in the published figure. Projected changes in the IPCC's words, including at 1 °C; dated 2021, the year of the assessment.",
    "bunkers": null,
    "geography": "Global land for the hottest and the wettest day of the year. For drought, the AR6 regions projected to dry: the caption lists 17 (W. and C. North America, N. and S. Central America, the Caribbean, N., N.E., S.W. and S. South America, the South American Monsoon, West and Central Europe, the Mediterranean, W. and E. Southern Africa, Madagascar, E. and S. Australia) and the Caribbean is not included in the calculation, so 16.",
    "gwp": null,
    "lulucf": null
  },
  "superseded_by": null,
  "table": {
    "dims": {
      "extreme": ["hot-10yr", "hot-10yr", "hot-10yr", "hot-10yr", "hot-10yr", "hot-50yr", "hot-50yr", "hot-50yr", "hot-50yr", "hot-50yr", "rain-10yr", "rain-10yr", "rain-10yr", "rain-10yr", "rain-10yr", "drought-10yr", "drought-10yr", "drought-10yr", "drought-10yr", "drought-10yr"],
      "level": ["1.0", "1.5", "2.0", "3.0", "4.0", "1.0", "1.5", "2.0", "3.0", "4.0", "1.0", "1.5", "2.0", "3.0", "4.0", "1.0", "1.5", "2.0", "3.0", "4.0"]
    },
    "entity": ["WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD"],
    "interval": ["very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely", "very-likely"],
    "lower": [1.81, 2.83, 3.77, 6.23, 8.25, 2.28, 4.26, 6.89, 15.05, 27.03, 1.24, 1.4, 1.56, 1.93, 2.31, 0.68, 1.02, 1.33, 1.36, 1.7],
    "period": ["2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021", "2021"],
    "status": ["projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection"],
    "upper": [3.22, 4.72, 6.03, 8.64, 9.63, 6.37, 10.74, 16.59, 31.31, 41.37, 1.42, 1.67, 1.98, 2.69, 3.58, 4.08, 5.1, 5.83, 7.68, 7.21],
    "value": [2.78, 4.11, 5.57, 8.12, 9.39, 4.81, 8.64, 13.92, 27.4, 39.19, 1.32, 1.53, 1.74, 2.21, 2.71, 1.7, 2.04, 2.38, 3.23, 4.08]
  },
  "time_basis": "calendar",
  "title": "How many times as often heat, rain and drought extremes occur at each level of global warming, modelled (IPCC AR6)",
  "unit": {
    "code": "times",
    "label": "times as often as in the second half of the 19th century",
    "short": "×"
  },
  "vintage": "v20210809"
}