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IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit; archived by the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis

IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.6 data

The data behind Figure SPM.6 of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (Working Group I): projected changes, relative to 1850-1900 (1851-1900 for heat and rain), in how often and how intensely extremes occur at global warming levels of 1, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 °C, from CMIP6 multi-model simulations under several scenarios. Panel a: the hottest day of the year over global land (TXx) that was a 1-in-10-year event; panel b: the same for a 1-in-50-year event; panel c: the wettest day of the year over global land (Rx1day), 1-in-10-year event; panel d: agricultural and ecological drought (annual mean total-column soil moisture below the 1850-1900 10th percentile) in the AR6 regions projected to dry. Each file gives the multi-model median and the 17th/83rd and 5th/95th percentiles. Frequency is a multiplier (how many times as often); intensity is in °C (heat), percent (rain) or standard deviations of soil moisture (drought). Model results, not observations.

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Licence and credit

Licence
CC BY 4.0
What the terms say
“Use of these data is covered by the following licence(s): http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ When using these data you must cite them correctly using the citation given on the CEDA Data Catalogue record.”

From the producer's terms, checked 2026-10-12; re-checked automatically every week.

Credit we give
Li & Hauser (2021), data for IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.6 (v20210809), NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, doi:10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4; IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001. CC BY 4.0.
Copy of the raw file
Allowed: we keep a public copy of every version we use.
Cite as
Li, C.; Hauser, M. (2021): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.6 (v20210809). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, {date_accessed}. doi:10.5285/93d1b84fbb144901809eaf67b35eb5c4. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.

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Status

Programme
Final archive of a published assessment figure (CEDA: "This dataset has been completed", update frequency "Not Planned"). The IPCC Seventh Assessment Report will supersede it.
Updates
Static (final; superseded only by the next IPCC assessment)
Last check
Unchanged since the last fetch (2026-10-25T10:13:44Z)