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Lifetime cost of a gas boiler and a heat pump in Great Britain (Rosenow et al. 2025)

What heating a typical home in Great Britain costs over 15 years with a gas boiler and with an air-source heat pump, as Rosenow and colleagues (2025) calculate it: installation, minus the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant for the heat pump, plus energy and maintenance, discounted. The central case and four sensitivity cases are given; all but one include the grant.

Latest value

16,861£

Great Britain, a typical gas-heated home, 2025. Version iScience 28, 111784 (2025).

As published

“Table 2. Sensitivity analysis, giving the TCO for different scenarios (gas boiler at 85% efficiency, heat pump with SCOP of 2.9)”

Lifetime cost of a heat pump and a gas boiler in Great Britain (Rosenow et al. 2025), Table 2. Checked word for word against the stored copy of the document every time the data is rebuilt.

Every value

Lifetime cost of a gas boiler and a heat pump in Great Britain (Rosenow et al. 2025), every published value
Heating systemSideCase (Table 2 column)PeriodValue (£)Status
Gas boiler (85% efficiency)Table 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "Central scenario": £15,640Gas boilerTable 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "Central scenario": £15,640Central scenarioTable 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "Central scenario": £15,640202515,640final
Gas boiler (85% efficiency)Table 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "7% discount rate": £13,495Gas boilerTable 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "7% discount rate": £13,4957% discount rateTable 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "7% discount rate": £13,495202513,495final
Gas boiler (85% efficiency)Table 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "10% higher heat demand for heat pump": £15,640Gas boilerTable 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "10% higher heat demand for heat pump": £15,64010% higher heat demand for heat pumpTable 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "10% higher heat demand for heat pump": £15,640202515,640final
Gas boiler (85% efficiency)Table 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "No BUS grant and 25% cost reduction": £15,640Gas boilerTable 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "No BUS grant and 25% cost reduction": £15,640No BUS grant and 25% cost reductionTable 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "No BUS grant and 25% cost reduction": £15,640202515,640final
Gas boiler (85% efficiency)Table 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "20 years lifetime heat pump": £15,640Gas boilerTable 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "20 years lifetime heat pump": £15,64020 years lifetime heat pumpTable 2, row "BAU—gas boiler", column "20 years lifetime heat pump": £15,640202515,640final
Air-source heat pump (seasonal efficiency 2.9)Table 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "Central scenario": £16,861Heat pumpTable 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "Central scenario": £16,861Central scenarioTable 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "Central scenario": £16,861202516,861final
Air-source heat pump (seasonal efficiency 2.9)Table 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "7% discount rate": £14,877Heat pumpTable 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "7% discount rate": £14,8777% discount rateTable 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "7% discount rate": £14,877202514,877final
Air-source heat pump (seasonal efficiency 2.9)Table 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "10% higher heat demand for heat pump": £17,924Heat pumpTable 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "10% higher heat demand for heat pump": £17,92410% higher heat demand for heat pumpTable 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "10% higher heat demand for heat pump": £17,924202517,924final
Air-source heat pump (seasonal efficiency 2.9)Table 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "No BUS grant and 25% cost reduction": £21,339Heat pumpTable 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "No BUS grant and 25% cost reduction": £21,339No BUS grant and 25% cost reductionTable 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "No BUS grant and 25% cost reduction": £21,339202521,339final
Air-source heat pump (seasonal efficiency 2.9)Table 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "20 years lifetime heat pump": £15,714Heat pumpTable 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "20 years lifetime heat pump": £15,71420 years lifetime heat pumpTable 2, row "BAU—heat pump", column "20 years lifetime heat pump": £15,714202515,714final

Where it comes from

Producer
Jan Rosenow, Jacob Barnes, Ray Galvin, Samuel O'Mara and Richard Lowes (University of Oxford, University of Cambridge, Gemserv, University of Exeter); published in iScience (Cell Press) · Lifetime cost of a heat pump and a gas boiler in Great Britain (Rosenow et al. 2025)
Version
iScience 28, 111784 (2025)
File
https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11803245/fullTextXML
Fetched
2026-10-08 (automatically), 132,326 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 06688ab35231f1bbb4815d63dc4160763a30ceb96de21bc0faf26bc18576cf87
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
Cite the producer
Rosenow, J., Barnes, J., Galvin, R., O'Mara, S. & Lowes, R. (2025). Total cost of ownership of heat pumps and policy choice: The case of Great Britain. iScience 28(2), 111784. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.111784

What was done to it

  1. Read the article's JATS XML from Europe PMC (sha256 06688ab35231…) and checked its DOI, the caption of Table 2 and 6 sentences of the methods that the scope relies on.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/green_premium/heating_rosenow_2025.py · code sha256 2a8fc5548ddd9ae1… · inputs 06688ab35231…

  2. Published the 10 cells of the rows 'BAU—gas boiler' and 'BAU—heat pump' in all five columns, each addressed by its printed row label and column header, as printed without the pound sign and the thousands separator.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/green_premium/heating_rosenow_2025.py · code sha256 2a8fc5548ddd9ae1… · inputs 06688ab35231…

  3. Left out the policy rows, which each cost only one of the two systems. Nothing was subtracted: the gas boiler and heat pump totals are shown side by side as the table gives them.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/green_premium/heating_rosenow_2025.py · code sha256 2a8fc5548ddd9ae1… · inputs 06688ab35231…

What it covers

Geography
Great Britain, a typical gas-heated home
Basis
Modelled total cost of ownership (net present value at a 3.5% discount rate, 7% in one case; 15-year life for both systems unless a case says otherwise), with the 2022 average heat pump installation cost from the MCS dashboard and DESNZ energy price projections under business as usual. The heat pump total includes the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant at its level when the article was written, except in the case 'No BUS grant and 25% cost reduction'. The period is the year the article was published; the currency year is not stated.
Unit
pounds, total cost of ownership over the system's life (£)