Data
Extra cost of low-emissions urea in Japan in 2035 (IEA)
How much more the IEA expects low-emissions urea fertiliser to cost to produce in Japan than conventional urea in 2035 under today's policies: about 80 percent more when the low-emissions ammonia in it is made in Japan, and 55 percent more when that ammonia is imported from the Middle East. Carbon pricing is included in the costs.
Latest value
80%
Japan, 2035 (projection). Version Energy Technology Perspectives 2026 (IEA, March 2026; revised April and July 2026).
As published
“Similarly, Japan faces rising costs in adopting near-zero emissions production, primarily as a result of high energy costs due to geographical constraints. Its competitive advantage, however, lies in value-added industries further down the supply chain. The Middle East, by contrast, benefits from abundant renewable energy resources, making low-emissions ammonia imports from this region a more cost-effective option for Japan; urea cost premiums would fall from approximately 80% to 55%.”
Energy Technology Perspectives 2026, Chapter 1, question on supply chains, pp. 72-73. Checked word for word against the stored copy of the document every time the data is rebuilt.
Every value
| Where the low-emissions ammonia is made | Period | Value (%) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Made in Japan (domestic value chain)Chapter 1, question on supply chains, pp. 72-73: "Similarly, Japan faces rising costs in adopting near-zero emissions production, primarily as a result of high energy costs due to geographical constraints. Its competitive advantage, however, lies in value-added industries further down the supply chain. The Middle East, by contrast, benefits from abundant renewable energy resources, making low-emissions ammonia imports from this region a more cost-effective option for Japan; urea cost premiums would fall from approximately 80% to 55%." | 2035 | 80 | projection |
| Imported low-emissions ammonia from the Middle EastChapter 1, question on supply chains, pp. 72-73: "Similarly, Japan faces rising costs in adopting near-zero emissions production, primarily as a result of high energy costs due to geographical constraints. Its competitive advantage, however, lies in value-added industries further down the supply chain. The Middle East, by contrast, benefits from abundant renewable energy resources, making low-emissions ammonia imports from this region a more cost-effective option for Japan; urea cost premiums would fall from approximately 80% to 55%." | 2035 | 55 | projection |
Where it comes from
- Producer
- International Energy Agency · Energy Technology Perspectives 2026
- Version
- Energy Technology Perspectives 2026 (IEA, March 2026; revised April and July 2026)
- Fetched
- 2026-10-08 (automatically), 33,223,886 bytes
- Fingerprint
- sha256 c4880aa007fcb05e771e75c21ec48ad8038e98570a0d4ab554440d14232c095bETag 0x8DED777A5D3C271 · Last-Modified Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:50:01 GMT
- Copies
- No Wayback copy recorded yet.
- Cite the producer
- IEA 2026; Energy Technology Perspectives 2026, https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technology-perspectives-2026, License: CC BY 4.0
What was done to it
Read the text of the PDF (sha256 c4880aa007fc…). Found each of the 1 quoted statement(s) word for word on PDF page(s) 72, 73, and the 3 context sentence(s) the scope relies on, before publishing.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/action/green_premium.py · code sha256 c2e591e4a0510a3d… · inputs c4880aa007fc…
Published each number exactly as printed, with its statement in the value's note. A range 'A-B%' is published as its low end A and high end B (dimension 'bound'); nothing was computed, rounded or combined with any other source.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/action/green_premium.py · code sha256 c2e591e4a0510a3d… · inputs c4880aa007fc…
The sentence's 'from approximately 80% to 55%' is read as the premium of the domestic value chain (80) and of the case with low-emissions ammonia imported from the Middle East (55), the comparison the sentence makes.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/action/green_premium.py · code sha256 c2e591e4a0510a3d… · inputs c4880aa007fc…
What it covers
- Geography
- Japan
- Basis
- Levelised cost of producing urea in Japan in 2035 in the IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (Figure 1.17), relative to conventional domestic production: the ammonia step by electrolysis compared with conventional steam methane reforming, biogenic CO2 for the low-emissions case. The cost of carbon pricing is included (figure note). 'Approximately' applies to the domestic value. Projection.
- Unit
- percent more than the conventional route (%)