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What adapting to climate change will cost developing countries each year by 2035

UNEP's estimate of what developing countries will need each year by 2035 to adapt to climate change, from two lines of evidence that are the ends of its plausible central range: modelled costs of adaptation, and the finance needs countries state in their national adaptation plans and nationally determined contributions, extrapolated to all developing countries. In billion US dollars a year at constant 2023 prices, not adjusted for inflation to 2035.

Latest value

310US$ bn/yr

Developing countries, as grouped by UNEP's Adaptation Gap Report 2025, 2035 (projection). Version Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on empty.

As published

“the costs of adaptation are estimated to be in a plausible central range of US$310–365 billion/year for developing countries by the year 2035 (in constant 2023 prices, not inflation-adjusted). This is based on two lines of evidence: An updated modelling analysis estimates adaptation costs at US$310 billion/year for developing countries by 2035. An updated assessment of submitted national adaptation plans (NAPs) and nationally determined contributions (NDCs), with extrapolation to all developing countries, estimates adaptation finance needs at US$365 billion/year for the period 2023–2035.”

Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on empty, Chapter 4, key messages, p. 40. Checked word for word against the stored copy of the document every time the data is rebuilt.

Every value

What adapting to climate change will cost developing countries each year by 2035, every published value
Line of evidencePeriodValue (US$ bn/yr)Status
Modelled costs of adaptation, by 2035Annual cost by 2035, from an updated modelling analysis.2035310projection
Finance needs in national adaptation plans and NDCs, 2023–2035Annual finance needs for the period 2023–2035, from national adaptation plans and NDCs extrapolated to all developing countries.2023/2035365projection

Where it comes from

Producer
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) · Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on empty
Version
Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on empty
File
https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/48798
Fetched
2026-10-08 (by a person), 15,336,689 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 7aae2efd6169f64163c6e4624df3d0b1754a9ba26493cc0060b77420e73f79cf
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.
Cite the producer
United Nations Environment Programme (2025). Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on empty. The world is gearing up for climate resilience — without the money to get there [Neufeldt, H., Hammill, A., Leiter, T., Magnan, A., Watkiss, P., Bakhtiari, F., Bueno Rubial, P., Butera, B., Canales, N., Chapagain, D., Christiansen, L., Dale, T., Milford, F., Niles, K., Njuguna, L., Pauw, P., Singh, C. and Yang, G.]. Nairobi. https://wedocs.unep.org/20.500.11822/48798.

What was done to it

  1. Read the text of UNEP's report PDF (sha256 7aae2efd6169…, downloaded by hand from UNEP's repository; see the snapshot note) and found these sentences, each with its value as printed, on PDF p. 13 (printed xiii), PDF p. 58 (printed 40) before publishing: "the costs of adaptation are estimated to be in a plausible central range of US$310–365 billion/year for developing countries by the year 2035 (in constant 2023 prices, not inflation-adjusted). This is based on two lines of evidence" "The reanalysis estimates the costs of adaptation to be in a plausible central range of US$310–365 billion per year for developing countries by the year 2035 (in 2023 prices)." "An updated modelling analysis estimates adaptation costs at US$310 billion/year for developing countries by 2035." "An updated assessment of submitted national adaptation plans (NAPs) and nationally determined contributions (NDCs), with extrapolation to all developing countries, estimates adaptation finance needs at US$365 billion/year for the period 2023–2035."

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/action/unep_agr.py · code sha256 32f786101fdd546f… · inputs 7aae2efd6169…

  2. Published the two lines of evidence as printed: "US$310 billion/year" (modelled costs, by 2035) as 310 and "US$365 billion/year" (finance needs, 2023–2035) as 365. They are the two ends of the report's plausible central range, "US$310–365 billion/year" (also on p. xiii), which is not published as a midpoint.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/action/unep_agr.py · code sha256 32f786101fdd546f… · inputs 7aae2efd6169…

What it covers

Geography
Developing countries, as grouped by UNEP's Adaptation Gap Report 2025
Basis
Annual costs of adaptation (modelled, by 2035) and adaptation finance needs (national plans and NDCs, 2023–2035), constant 2023 prices, not inflation-adjusted.
Unit
billion US dollars a year (constant 2023 prices) (US$ bn/yr)