IPCC AR6 Working Group I Chapter 9 authors (Garner, Kopp et al.), on Zenodo

IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections

The sea-level projections assessed in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021). Global mean sea-level change in millimetres, every ten years from 2020, at 107 quantiles, relative to 1995-2014 (the AR6 reference period, which the files themselves do not state). Medium-confidence projections run to 2150 for SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 and for warming levels; low-confidence projections, which add ice-sheet processes whose likelihood is poorly known, run to 2300 for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Totals come with their components: ocean dynamics (including thermal expansion), glaciers, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and land water storage. The record also holds regional and tide-gauge projections.

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Numbers published from it

None yet: this source is registered and its licence checked, and its numbers are being prepared.

Licence and credit

Licence: CC BY 4.0
What the terms say: “The IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Rise Projections are licensed by the authors under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License”
From the producer's terms, checked 2026-10-04; re-checked automatically every week.
Credit we give: IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections, version 20210809 (Garner et al., 2021), doi:10.5281/zenodo.6382554, accessed {date_accessed}, CC BY 4.0. Fox-Kemper et al. (2021), Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, IPCC AR6 WGI Chapter 9, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.011. Kopp et al. (2023), The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-Level (FACTS) v1.0, Geoscientific Model Development 16, 7461–7489, doi:10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023.
Notice: We thank the projection authors for developing and making the sea-level rise projections available, multiple funding agencies for supporting the development of the projections, and the NASA Sea Level Change Team for developing and hosting the IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projection Tool.
Copy of the raw file: Not allowed: we keep a private copy for our own checks and publish its fingerprint.
Cite as: Garner, G. G., T. Hermans, R. E. Kopp, A. B. A. Slangen, T. L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M. D. Palmer, C. Smith, B. Fox-Kemper, H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, Y. Yu, L. Hua, T. Palmer, B. Pearson, 2021. IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections. Version 20210809. Dataset accessed {date_accessed} at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5914709.

Files

ar6.zip (889,784,792 bytes, md5 6ae2f0206bcc687b2dadb1eb997d4234): global projections, as NetCDF. The confidence_output_files (medium and low confidence, per SSP and per warming level) hold the quantiles that match the report's tables and figures; full_sample* directories hold the samples. A person downloads it from this URL (no login) and records it with `uv run envdash snapshot add --source ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections --file ar6.zip`, checking the md5 against the record.
https://zenodo.org/api/records/6382554/files/ar6.zip/content

Status

Programme: Version 20210809 is final and will not change before the IPCC's seventh assessment. Zenodo (CERN) is the durable home; the NASA projection tool that also served these data moved from sealevel.nasa.gov (now 404) to earth.gov/sealevel. Not exposed to US federal cuts while the Zenodo record stands.
Updates: Static until the IPCC's seventh assessment report
Last check: Downloaded by hand (2026-10-05T11:03:33Z)