Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) consortium, led by the University of Leeds

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025

Annual update of the IPCC AR6 assessment of key climate indicators. Human-induced warming relative to 1850-1900, split into greenhouse gases, other human forcings and natural forcings; effective radiative forcing by agent from 1750 to 2025 (W/m2, best estimate with 5th and 95th percentiles); greenhouse gas concentrations 1750-2025; observed global mean surface temperature (multi-dataset mean); global GHG emissions by gas (GtCO2e, AR6 GWP100, including LULUCF); Earth's energy imbalance; and remaining carbon budgets in 0.1 degree steps. Pinned to data release IGCC-2025a. The headline warming file has two rows per period; the paper's headline uses the row noted "SR15 definition".

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Licence and credit

Licence: CC BY 4.0
What the terms say: “Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International”
From the producer's terms, checked 2026-10-04; re-checked automatically every week.
Credit we give: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: Forster et al. (2026), Earth Syst. Sci. Data 18, 3889–3933, doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026; data: Smith et al. (2026), version IGCC-2025a, doi:10.5281/zenodo.21494229. CC BY 4.0.
Copy of the raw file: Allowed: we keep a public copy of every version we use.
Cite as: Forster, P. M., Walsh, T., Smith, C., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M. D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A. B. A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N. P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H. D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R. M., Atkinson, C., Betts, R. A., Bombelli, A., Burgess, S. N., Cheng, L., Claxton, H. E., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T. L., Domingues, C. M., Gasser, T., Gregory, C. H., Hoesly, R. M., Huppmann, D., Ishii, M., Kadow, C., Karwat, A., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Kovilakam, M. V. M., Krummel, P. B., Lan, X., Lamarque, J.-F., Liné, A., Martín-Míguez, B., Monselesan, D. P., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Mussak, P., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Rigby, M., Rohde, R., Savita, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Smith, S. J., Taha, G., Tassone, C., Thorne, P., Wells, C., Western, L. M., van der Werf, G. R., Wijffels, S. E., Zecchetto, M., Zhong, J., Zhang, X.-Y., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026. Smith, C., Walsh, T., Gillett, N., Hauser, M., Krummel, P., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Mühle, J., Palmer, M., Ribes, A., Schumacher, D., Seneviratne, S., Slangen, A., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., & Forster, P. (2026). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 (Version IGCC-2025a) [Computer software]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.21494229

Files

Snapshot of the ClimateIndicator/data repository at tag IGCC-2025a. Files used, under ClimateIndicator-data-0f2765d/data/base/: anthropogenic_warming/Assessment-Update-2025_GMST_headlines.csv (attributable warming, 5th/50th/95th percentiles), effective_radiative_forcing/ERF_best.csv and ERF_best_aggregates.csv with ERF_p05*/ERF_p95* (W/m2 by agent, 1750-2025), greenhouse_gas_concentrations/ghg_concentrations.csv, global_mean_temperatures/annual_averages.csv, greenhouse_gas_emissions/greehouse_gas_emissions_co2eq.csv (sic) and carbon_budget/*.csv (file names encode the assumptions, e.g. hdT_1.24).
https://zenodo.org/api/records/21494229/files/ClimateIndicator/data-IGCC-2025a.zip/content
data/base/anthropogenic_warming/Assessment-Update-2025_GMST_headlines.csv at IGCC-2025a: the multi-method assessment of attributable warming (5th, 50th, 95th percentile columns) for 2010-2019, 2016-2025, 2017 and 2025; rows noted "SR15 definition" use the trend-based single-year definition, the others the annual mean.
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/anthropogenic_warming/Assessment-Update-2025_GMST_headlines.csv
data/base/anthropogenic_warming/Walsh_GMST_timeseries.csv at IGCC-2025a: annual attributable warming 1850-2025 by the Global Warming Index method (Walsh), percentiles 5, 17, 50, 83 and 95.
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/anthropogenic_warming/Walsh_GMST_timeseries.csv
data/base/anthropogenic_warming/Gillett_GMST_timeseries.csv at IGCC-2025a: annual attributable warming 1850-2025 by regularised optimal fingerprinting (Gillett), percentiles 5, 17, 50, 83 and 95.
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/anthropogenic_warming/Gillett_GMST_timeseries.csv
data/base/anthropogenic_warming/Ribes_GMST_timeseries.csv at IGCC-2025a: annual attributable warming 1850-2025 by kriging for climate change (Ribes), percentiles 5, 17, 50, 83 and 95.
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/anthropogenic_warming/Ribes_GMST_timeseries.csv
data/base/effective_radiative_forcing/ERF_best_aggregates.csv at IGCC-2025a: best-estimate effective radiative forcing relative to 1750 by agent and aggregate (W/m2), 1750-2025.
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/effective_radiative_forcing/ERF_best_aggregates.csv
data/base/effective_radiative_forcing/ERF_p05_aggregates.csv at IGCC-2025a: 5th percentile of the same.
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/effective_radiative_forcing/ERF_p05_aggregates.csv
data/base/effective_radiative_forcing/ERF_p95_aggregates.csv at IGCC-2025a: 95th percentile of the same.
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/effective_radiative_forcing/ERF_p95_aggregates.csv
data/base/carbon_budget/budget_normal_magicc_True_fair_False_..._hdT_1.24NonlinNonCO2_all_None_recEm213.csv at IGCC-2025a: remaining carbon budgets (GtCO2) from the start of 2026 for warming levels in 0.1 degree steps and seven likelihoods, using MAGICC for non-CO2 warming, 1.24 degrees of historical human-induced warming (2016-2025) and 213 GtCO2 emitted since the middle of that period: the assumptions of the paper's Table 8.
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/carbon_budget/budget_normal_magicc_True_fair_False_esf_7.1pm26.7_likeli_0.6827_nonCO2pc50.0_GtCO2_permaf_False_zecsd_0.0_asym_False_hdT_1.24NonlinNonCO2_all_None_recEm213.csv
The ESSD article (Forster et al. 2026, Earth Syst. Sci. Data 18, 3889-3933, 45 pages, published 11 June 2026), for statements quoted with their page: the remaining carbon budget (Sect. 9 and Table 8, p. 3910) and the figures the producers state for effective radiative forcing (Sect. 5, p. 3899) and attributable warming.
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/3889/2026/essd-18-3889-2026.pdf

Status

Programme: Fourth annual edition. The paper was published on 11 June 2026 and data release IGCC-2025a on 22 July 2026; the GitHub repository was last pushed on 16 September 2026 (main branch, not used). The IGCC 2026 update is expected around mid-2027; no date is announced.
Updates: Annual (paper around June, tagged data release around July)
Last check: Unchanged since the last fetch (2026-10-05T11:03:25Z)
Independent sources measuring the same thing: NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index