Climate Action Tracker (Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute)
Climate Action Tracker: the CAT Thermometer, November 2025 (COP30 global update)
Projected global warming in 2100, in degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, under four sets of assumptions: current policies and action, only the 2030 and 2035 national targets, all pledges and targets, and an optimistic case in which every net-zero announcement is met. Each comes with a lower bound, median and upper bound from the MAGICC7 climate model. The file also gives the 2030 and 2035 emissions gaps to a 1.5 °C pathway (GtCO2e), global emissions to 2100 and warming by decade for each case. Published 13 November 2025, at COP30.
Numbers published from it
Licence and credit
- What the terms say
“All rights reserved. The content provided by this website is protected by copyright. You are authorised to view, download, print and distribute the copyrighted content from this website subject to the following condition: Any reproduction, in full or in part, must credit Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute and must include a copyright notice and must not be used for commercial purposes.”
From the producer's terms, checked 2026-10-04; re-checked automatically every week.
- Credit we give
- Climate Action Tracker (2025), The CAT Thermometer, November 2025, Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/.
- Notice
- Copyright © 2025 by Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. All rights reserved. Reproduced unmodified for non-commercial use; not to be used for commercial purposes.
- Rounding rule
- Numbers are shown only as CAT's tables show them: warming to 0.1 °C and emissions gaps as whole GtCO2e ranges. The unrounded time-series values may be used to draw lines, never printed as numbers.
- Copy of the raw file
- Not allowed: we keep a private copy for our own checks and publish its fingerprint.
- Cite as
- Climate Action Tracker (2025). The CAT Thermometer. November 2025. Available at: https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/
Files
CAT_2025-11_PublicData_GlobalTemperatureEstimates_COP30.xlsx. Sheets: Info, CAT Thermometer (2100 warming, lower / median / upper bound, rounded to 0.1 °C), 2030 Emissions Gap (GtCO2e ranges for 2030 and 2035), Global Emissions time series (GtCO2e, 1990-2100) and GMT time series (°C above pre-industrial, by decade to 2100, unrounded).
https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/1349/CAT_2025-11_PublicData_GlobalTemperatureEstimates_COP30.xlsx
Status
- Programme
- No newer global update had appeared by 4 October 2026: the publications page lists country memos of 27 August and 18 September 2026 and an 11 June 2026 briefing since. The global temperature updates came at the UN climate conferences (14 November 2024, 13 November 2025); COP31 is in November 2026 and no CAT date is announced. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute are European non-profits; not a US federal product.
- Updates
- Annual global temperature update at the November UN climate conference
- Last check
- Unchanged since the last fetch (2026-10-05T11:02:22Z)
- Independent sources measuring the same thing
- Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off target