{
  "attribution": "Calculated by Environment Dashboard from Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: Forster et al. (2026), Earth Syst. Sci. Data 18, 3889–3933, doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026; data: Smith et al. (2026), version IGCC-2025a, doi:10.5281/zenodo.21494229. CC BY 4.0. Changes: best estimate and likely range for each year computed from the three methods' annual percentiles with IGCC's stated multi-method assessment rule.",
  "description": "How much of the global surface warming in each year since 1850 was caused by human activity, relative to the 1850–1900 average, with the likely range, by the annual-mean definition. Indicators of Global Climate Change combines three attribution methods; this series applies its stated assessment rule to each year's annual-mean estimate. IGCC's headline figure for a single year uses the trend-based definition of the IPCC 1.5 °C report instead (published separately as human-induced warming in 2025) and can differ by a few hundredths of a degree.",
  "dimensions": [],
  "display": {
    "decimals": 2
  },
  "geo_coverage": "global-only",
  "headline_entity": "WLD",
  "id": "warming.igcc-2025.human-induced",
  "kind": "series",
  "latest": {
    "age_bp": null,
    "dims": {},
    "entity": "WLD",
    "period": "2025",
    "status": "final",
    "value": 1.38
  },
  "licence": {
    "name": "CC BY 4.0",
    "spdx": "CC-BY-4.0",
    "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
  },
  "licence_class": "open",
  "notes": [],
  "notice": null,
  "origins": [
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    {"acquisition": "automatic", "artifact_id": "warming-gillett-timeseries", "bytes": 46521, "citation_full": "Forster, P. M., Walsh, T., Smith, C., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M. D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A. B. A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N. P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H. D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R. M., Atkinson, C., Betts, R. A., Bombelli, A., Burgess, S. N., Cheng, L., Claxton, H. E., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T. L., Domingues, C. M., Gasser, T., Gregory, C. H., Hoesly, R. M., Huppmann, D., Ishii, M., Kadow, C., Karwat, A., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Kovilakam, M. V. M., Krummel, P. B., Lan, X., Lamarque, J.-F., Liné, A., Martín-Míguez, B., Monselesan, D. P., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Mussak, P., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Rigby, M., Rohde, R., Savita, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Smith, S. J., Taha, G., Tassone, C., Thorne, P., Wells, C., Western, L. M., van der Werf, G. R., Wijffels, S. E., Zecchetto, M., Zhong, J., Zhang, X.-Y., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026. Smith, C., Walsh, T., Gillett, N., Hauser, M., Krummel, P., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Mühle, J., Palmer, M., Ribes, A., Schumacher, D., Seneviratne, S., Slangen, A., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., & Forster, P. (2026). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 (Version IGCC-2025a) [Computer software]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.21494229", "date_accessed": "2026-10-04", "date_published": "2026-07-22", "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21494229", "etag": "W/\"7e509eb88cc88ccbe50175d03980b983776fea0c55b54a37cd5ac04fca12f60e\"", "last_modified": null, "licence": {"name": "CC BY 4.0", "spdx": "CC-BY-4.0", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"}, "producer": "Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) consortium, led by the University of Leeds", "r2_url": "https://files.environmentdashboard.org/raw/e0abdbb899df3b4b241336fdfd5c07e2eee2a8057ad31e323bd137a2c687d2fe.zst", "sha256": "e0abdbb899df3b4b241336fdfd5c07e2eee2a8057ad31e323bd137a2c687d2fe", "source_id": "igcc-2025", "title": "Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025", "url_download": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/anthropogenic_warming/Gillett_GMST_timeseries.csv", "url_main": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21494229", "version_producer": "IGCC-2025a", "wayback_url": null},
    {"acquisition": "automatic", "artifact_id": "warming-ribes-timeseries", "bytes": 30591, "citation_full": "Forster, P. M., Walsh, T., Smith, C., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Cassou, C., Hauser, M., Hausfather, Z., Lee, J.-Y., Palmer, M. D., von Schuckmann, K., Slangen, A. B. A., Szopa, S., Trewin, B., Yun, J., Gillett, N. P., Jenkins, S., Matthews, H. D., Raghavan, K., Ribes, A., Rogelj, J., Rosen, D., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R. M., Atkinson, C., Betts, R. A., Bombelli, A., Burgess, S. N., Cheng, L., Claxton, H. E., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T. L., Domingues, C. M., Gasser, T., Gregory, C. H., Hoesly, R. M., Huppmann, D., Ishii, M., Kadow, C., Karwat, A., Kennedy, J., Killick, R. E., Kovilakam, M. V. M., Krummel, P. B., Lan, X., Lamarque, J.-F., Liné, A., Martín-Míguez, B., Monselesan, D. P., Morice, C., Mühle, J., Mussak, P., Peters, G. P., Pirani, A., Pongratz, J., Rigby, M., Rohde, R., Savita, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Smith, S. J., Taha, G., Tassone, C., Thorne, P., Wells, C., Western, L. M., van der Werf, G. R., Wijffels, S. E., Zecchetto, M., Zhong, J., Zhang, X.-Y., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Zhai, P.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 18, 3889–3933, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026, 2026. Smith, C., Walsh, T., Gillett, N., Hauser, M., Krummel, P., Lamb, W., Lamboll, R., Mühle, J., Palmer, M., Ribes, A., Schumacher, D., Seneviratne, S., Slangen, A., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., & Forster, P. (2026). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025 (Version IGCC-2025a) [Computer software]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.21494229", "date_accessed": "2026-10-04", "date_published": "2026-07-22", "doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21494229", "etag": "W/\"80268af92a87e7d751f1361e59f301ba96b45f539e6db36442017a7232384b7d\"", "last_modified": null, "licence": {"name": "CC BY 4.0", "spdx": "CC-BY-4.0", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"}, "producer": "Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) consortium, led by the University of Leeds", "r2_url": "https://files.environmentdashboard.org/raw/5eb8a8883085cccce2330558ec6d0803a3638e40e6b799dd83c6ad67a4e835df.zst", "sha256": "5eb8a8883085cccce2330558ec6d0803a3638e40e6b799dd83c6ad67a4e835df", "source_id": "igcc-2025", "title": "Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025", "url_download": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ClimateIndicator/data/0f2765dc2e96c98aebceb78fb12cd28fcfb9ac6f/data/base/anthropogenic_warming/Ribes_GMST_timeseries.csv", "url_main": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21494229", "version_producer": "IGCC-2025a", "wayback_url": null}
  ],
  "processing": [
    {
      "description": "Checked that each file read (Assessment-Update-2025_GMST_headlines.csv, Gillett_GMST_timeseries.csv, Ribes_GMST_timeseries.csv, Walsh_GMST_timeseries.csv) is byte-identical to the same path inside the IGCC-2025a release zip deposited on Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.21494229, sha256 04658ff91053…).",
      "inputs": ["04658ff91053808aced03f65dc977311668aec1610ec83bec72fff303dcbcbcd", "d419c3f7d513b42052f5635454853610739d8b5f1749f55b5df03862dfe28879", "ecf9da410624bb9959d38b916be9d6dde6c0a6613a640c2ef842c464f71d146a", "e0abdbb899df3b4b241336fdfd5c07e2eee2a8057ad31e323bd137a2c687d2fe", "5eb8a8883085cccce2330558ec6d0803a3638e40e6b799dd83c6ad67a4e835df"],
      "lock_sha256": "7e110986c30381965c2e6096466c401cbf72bd1b7a828369f6f6c14c909dcbda",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py",
      "transform_sha256": "5a1f11a945b695d391df82051a7702020d761923b52db1f49469838f1f9c172a"
    },
    {
      "description": "Read the annual 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles of human-induced (anthropogenic) warming relative to 1850–1900 from the timeseries files of the three attribution methods IGCC assesses: Global Warming Index (Walsh), regularised optimal fingerprinting (Gillett) and kriging for climate change (Ribes).",
      "inputs": ["04658ff91053808aced03f65dc977311668aec1610ec83bec72fff303dcbcbcd", "d419c3f7d513b42052f5635454853610739d8b5f1749f55b5df03862dfe28879", "ecf9da410624bb9959d38b916be9d6dde6c0a6613a640c2ef842c464f71d146a", "e0abdbb899df3b4b241336fdfd5c07e2eee2a8057ad31e323bd137a2c687d2fe", "5eb8a8883085cccce2330558ec6d0803a3638e40e6b799dd83c6ad67a4e835df"],
      "lock_sha256": "7e110986c30381965c2e6096466c401cbf72bd1b7a828369f6f6c14c909dcbda",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py",
      "transform_sha256": "5a1f11a945b695d391df82051a7702020d761923b52db1f49469838f1f9c172a"
    },
    {
      "description": "Applied IGCC's stated assessment rule to every year (ESSD Sect. 8): the best estimate is the mean of the three medians to 0.01 °C (rounded half up), and the likely range runs from the lowest 5th percentile rounded down to 0.1 °C to the highest 95th percentile rounded up to 0.1 °C.",
      "inputs": ["04658ff91053808aced03f65dc977311668aec1610ec83bec72fff303dcbcbcd", "d419c3f7d513b42052f5635454853610739d8b5f1749f55b5df03862dfe28879", "ecf9da410624bb9959d38b916be9d6dde6c0a6613a640c2ef842c464f71d146a", "e0abdbb899df3b4b241336fdfd5c07e2eee2a8057ad31e323bd137a2c687d2fe", "5eb8a8883085cccce2330558ec6d0803a3638e40e6b799dd83c6ad67a4e835df"],
      "lock_sha256": "7e110986c30381965c2e6096466c401cbf72bd1b7a828369f6f6c14c909dcbda",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py",
      "transform_sha256": "5a1f11a945b695d391df82051a7702020d761923b52db1f49469838f1f9c172a"
    },
    {
      "description": "Checked that this reproduces every single-year annual-mean assessment IGCC published in Assessment-Update-2025_GMST_headlines.csv (2017: 1.14 [0.9 to 1.4] °C; 2025: 1.38 [1.1 to 1.7] °C); it does, exactly. IGCC's headline single-year figure uses the trend-based definition of the IPCC 1.5 °C report instead, which IGCC prioritises where the two differ; it is published as warming.igcc-2025.human-induced-2025, not in this series.",
      "inputs": ["04658ff91053808aced03f65dc977311668aec1610ec83bec72fff303dcbcbcd", "d419c3f7d513b42052f5635454853610739d8b5f1749f55b5df03862dfe28879", "ecf9da410624bb9959d38b916be9d6dde6c0a6613a640c2ef842c464f71d146a", "e0abdbb899df3b4b241336fdfd5c07e2eee2a8057ad31e323bd137a2c687d2fe", "5eb8a8883085cccce2330558ec6d0803a3638e40e6b799dd83c6ad67a4e835df"],
      "lock_sha256": "7e110986c30381965c2e6096466c401cbf72bd1b7a828369f6f6c14c909dcbda",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py",
      "transform_sha256": "5a1f11a945b695d391df82051a7702020d761923b52db1f49469838f1f9c172a"
    }
  ],
  "published_value": null,
  "schema_version": 1,
  "scope": {
    "baseline": "1850–1900",
    "basis": "Global mean surface temperature (GMST); warming attributed to all human influences (greenhouse gases, aerosols and other human forcings), annual-mean definition. Best estimate: mean of the three methods' medians to 0.01 °C. Likely range: the smallest 0.1 °C-step range covering each method's 5–95% range.",
    "bunkers": null,
    "geography": "Global mean",
    "gwp": null,
    "lulucf": null
  },
  "superseded_by": null,
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    "dims": {},
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  },
  "time_basis": "calendar",
  "title": "Human-induced warming since 1850–1900, each year, annual-mean definition (IGCC 2025)",
  "unit": {
    "code": "degC",
    "label": "degrees Celsius",
    "short": "°C"
  },
  "vintage": "IGCC-2025a"
}