{
  "attribution": "Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: Forster et al. (2026), Earth Syst. Sci. Data 18, 3889–3933, doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026; data: Smith et al. (2026), version IGCC-2025a, doi:10.5281/zenodo.21494229. CC BY 4.0.",
  "description": "How much of the global surface warming in 2025 was caused by human activity, relative to the 1850–1900 average, with the likely range, as assessed by Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025. IGCC uses the trend-based single-year definition of the IPCC 1.5 °C report (SR1.5), which it prioritises where it differs from the annual mean because it reduces the effect of year-to-year natural variability.",
  "dimensions": [],
  "display": {
    "decimals": 2
  },
  "geo_coverage": "global-only",
  "headline_entity": "WLD",
  "id": "warming.igcc-2025.human-induced-2025",
  "kind": "published-value",
  "latest": {
    "age_bp": null,
    "dims": {},
    "entity": "WLD",
    "period": "2025",
    "status": "final",
    "value": 1.37
  },
  "licence": {
    "name": "CC BY 4.0",
    "spdx": "CC-BY-4.0",
    "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
  },
  "licence_class": "open",
  "notes": [],
  "notice": null,
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  ],
  "processing": [
    {
      "description": "Quoted from Sect. 8.1, p. 3906 (also the abstract and Table 6) of Forster et al. (2026), Earth Syst. Sci. Data 18. The quote was found in the text of page 18 of the PDF snapshot (sha256 795eb30a2ed5…) before publishing, and so was IGCC's statement on page 17 of which single-year definition it uses: 'where they differ we prioritise the SR1.5 trend-based definition' (rather than the annual mean).",
      "inputs": ["04658ff91053808aced03f65dc977311668aec1610ec83bec72fff303dcbcbcd", "795eb30a2ed5defdffb78499b0c3eac2314eac3a4ab5d7e9f093bef336acafeb", "d419c3f7d513b42052f5635454853610739d8b5f1749f55b5df03862dfe28879"],
      "lock_sha256": "7e110986c30381965c2e6096466c401cbf72bd1b7a828369f6f6c14c909dcbda",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py",
      "transform_sha256": "5a1f11a945b695d391df82051a7702020d761923b52db1f49469838f1f9c172a"
    },
    {
      "description": "Value: \"1.37 [1.1 to 1.7] °C\" is published as 1.37 °C for 2025 with the likely range 1.1 to 1.7 °C, relative to 1850–1900.",
      "inputs": ["04658ff91053808aced03f65dc977311668aec1610ec83bec72fff303dcbcbcd", "795eb30a2ed5defdffb78499b0c3eac2314eac3a4ab5d7e9f093bef336acafeb", "d419c3f7d513b42052f5635454853610739d8b5f1749f55b5df03862dfe28879"],
      "lock_sha256": "7e110986c30381965c2e6096466c401cbf72bd1b7a828369f6f6c14c909dcbda",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py",
      "transform_sha256": "5a1f11a945b695d391df82051a7702020d761923b52db1f49469838f1f9c172a"
    },
    {
      "description": "Checked that each file read (Assessment-Update-2025_GMST_headlines.csv) is byte-identical to the same path inside the IGCC-2025a release zip deposited on Zenodo (doi:10.5281/zenodo.21494229, sha256 04658ff91053…).",
      "inputs": ["04658ff91053808aced03f65dc977311668aec1610ec83bec72fff303dcbcbcd", "795eb30a2ed5defdffb78499b0c3eac2314eac3a4ab5d7e9f093bef336acafeb", "d419c3f7d513b42052f5635454853610739d8b5f1749f55b5df03862dfe28879"],
      "lock_sha256": "7e110986c30381965c2e6096466c401cbf72bd1b7a828369f6f6c14c909dcbda",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py",
      "transform_sha256": "5a1f11a945b695d391df82051a7702020d761923b52db1f49469838f1f9c172a"
    },
    {
      "description": "Cross-check: the release's own 'SR15 definition' row for 2025 in Assessment-Update-2025_GMST_headlines.csv gives 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles 1.1, 1.37 and 1.7 °C, the same as the quoted value and range; the build stops if they differ. (The annual-mean row for 2025 gives 1.38 °C; that definition is published as warming.igcc-2025.human-induced.)",
      "inputs": ["04658ff91053808aced03f65dc977311668aec1610ec83bec72fff303dcbcbcd", "795eb30a2ed5defdffb78499b0c3eac2314eac3a4ab5d7e9f093bef336acafeb", "d419c3f7d513b42052f5635454853610739d8b5f1749f55b5df03862dfe28879"],
      "lock_sha256": "7e110986c30381965c2e6096466c401cbf72bd1b7a828369f6f6c14c909dcbda",
      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/climate/igcc_2025.py",
      "transform_sha256": "5a1f11a945b695d391df82051a7702020d761923b52db1f49469838f1f9c172a"
    }
  ],
  "published_value": {
    "document": "igcc-2025",
    "locator": "Sect. 8.1, p. 3906 (also the abstract and Table 6)",
    "quote": "The single year average human-induced warming is assessed to be 1.37 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2025 relative to 1850–1900."
  },
  "schema_version": 1,
  "scope": {
    "baseline": "1850–1900",
    "basis": "Global mean surface temperature (GMST); warming attributed to all human influences (greenhouse gases, aerosols and other human forcings) in the single year 2025, SR1.5 trend-based definition. IGCC's multi-method assessment of three attribution methods: best estimate to 0.01 °C, likely range to 0.1 °C.",
    "bunkers": null,
    "geography": "Global mean",
    "gwp": null,
    "lulucf": null
  },
  "superseded_by": null,
  "table": {
    "dims": {},
    "entity": ["WLD"],
    "interval": ["likely"],
    "lower": [1.1],
    "period": ["2025"],
    "status": ["final"],
    "upper": [1.7],
    "value": [1.37]
  },
  "time_basis": "calendar",
  "title": "Human-induced warming in 2025 (IGCC 2025)",
  "unit": {
    "code": "degC",
    "label": "degrees Celsius",
    "short": "°C"
  },
  "vintage": "IGCC-2025a"
}