{
  "attribution": "Kulp, S. A. & Strauss, B. H. (2019). New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Nature Communications 10, 4844. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z. CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).",
  "description": "Estimated number of people, in millions, living on land below the local high-tide line (mean higher-high water), at today's sea level and with the sea levels projected for 2050 and 2100 under low (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emissions, from Supplementary Data 1 of Kulp & Strauss (2019), using the CoastalDEM elevation model. Projected values give the median and the 5th to 95th percentile range of the sea-level projections. Two projection sets are published side by side, never mixed: K14 (Kopp et al. 2014), which the paper calls probabilistic and closely aligned with IPCC findings and which gives the abstract's lead figure (below high tide by 2100 under low emissions); and K17 (Kopp et al. 2017), which adds unstable Antarctic ice, is not probabilistic, and gives the abstract's high-end figures. Both predate the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. The population is held at its 2010 distribution (LandScan 2010), so future values show where today's people live relative to future seas, not projected populations. The method is a bathtub model that ignores sea walls and other defences, so it measures exposure, not flooding.",
  "dimensions": [
    {
      "id": "scenario",
      "label": "Sea level: today's, or projected under an emissions scenario",
      "values": [
        {"id": "present", "label": "Today's sea level (that of 2000)"},
        {"id": "rcp26", "label": "RCP2.6 (low emissions)"},
        {"id": "rcp45", "label": "RCP4.5 (moderate emissions)"},
        {"id": "rcp85", "label": "RCP8.5 (high emissions)"}
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "projection",
      "label": "Sea-level projection",
      "values": [
        {"id": "none", "label": "None: today's sea level"},
        {"id": "k14", "label": "K14 (Kopp et al. 2014): probabilistic, closely aligned with IPCC findings"},
        {"id": "k17", "label": "K17 (Kopp et al. 2017): unstable Antarctic ice, not probabilistic"}
      ]
    }
  ],
  "display": {
    "decimals": 0
  },
  "geo_coverage": "global-only",
  "headline_entity": "WLD",
  "id": "coastal.kulp-strauss-2019.below-high-tide",
  "kind": "series",
  "latest": {
    "age_bp": null,
    "dims": {
      "projection": "none",
      "scenario": "present"
    },
    "entity": "WLD",
    "period": "2010",
    "status": "final",
    "value": 110.0
  },
  "licence": {
    "name": "CC BY 4.0",
    "spdx": "CC-BY-4.0",
    "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
  },
  "licence_class": "open",
  "notes": [],
  "notice": null,
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  ],
  "processing": [
    {
      "description": "Read Supplementary Data 1 (sha256 37a6ab2fc25e…): its 27 column headings had to be exactly as expected. Kept the 13 rows of Place 'World' (present day, then K14 and K17 under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 for 2050 and 2100), whose Total is 6800 million people, and from each only the three CoastalDEM columns of Perm: land below the future local high tide line. The SRTM, JAXA and MERITDEM columns and the SIDS and country rows are not used here (the country rows are published, in people, by the indicators ending '-by-country').",
      "inputs": ["37a6ab2fc25ec632f8dc7485346d0389d953754b591d6b015c45b5d6de4c0b81", "2b98673da602184f06aa3d86a939ea6b977dfb847181cf979472349695a1a771", "912692e7c7a388dfb735f5ec9b1dca5bd6d42b40ed11c88014594ba6b0dd6d3f"],
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      "transform_sha256": "5ddd6351a3e35c3870dc431f28867df83f4c2928638eac13412415e3ad226abb"
    },
    {
      "description": "Published the 50th percentile as the value and the 5th and 95th percentiles as the lower and upper ends of a 90% interval, exactly as printed in millions of people (nothing rounded or recalculated). The present-day row prints '--' for both percentiles, so it has no range.",
      "inputs": ["37a6ab2fc25ec632f8dc7485346d0389d953754b591d6b015c45b5d6de4c0b81", "2b98673da602184f06aa3d86a939ea6b977dfb847181cf979472349695a1a771", "912692e7c7a388dfb735f5ec9b1dca5bd6d42b40ed11c88014594ba6b0dd6d3f"],
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      "transform_sha256": "5ddd6351a3e35c3870dc431f28867df83f4c2928638eac13412415e3ad226abb"
    },
    {
      "description": "Dated the present-day row 2010, the year of the LandScan population that every row counts (its sea level is that of 2000, the zero of both projection sets), and the projected rows 2050 and 2100, the years of their sea levels; the population stays as it was in 2010.",
      "inputs": ["37a6ab2fc25ec632f8dc7485346d0389d953754b591d6b015c45b5d6de4c0b81", "2b98673da602184f06aa3d86a939ea6b977dfb847181cf979472349695a1a771", "912692e7c7a388dfb735f5ec9b1dca5bd6d42b40ed11c88014594ba6b0dd6d3f"],
      "lock_sha256": "540d352a2533554fbfd8f392b6bae78d1f9332effe729c06b520b2a630450330",
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      "transform_sha256": "5ddd6351a3e35c3870dc431f28867df83f4c2928638eac13412415e3ad226abb"
    },
    {
      "description": "Published both projection sets as values of the 'projection' dimension, side by side and never mixed, because the abstract uses both: its 190 M (150–250 M) below high tide by 2100 under low emissions is K14 (K17 gives another range), and its 'up to 630 M' and 'up to 340 M' below the annual flood level by 2100 and mid-century are K17's 95th percentiles under RCP8.5. Checked both, and the present day's 110 M and 250 M, against these cells.",
      "inputs": ["37a6ab2fc25ec632f8dc7485346d0389d953754b591d6b015c45b5d6de4c0b81", "2b98673da602184f06aa3d86a939ea6b977dfb847181cf979472349695a1a771", "912692e7c7a388dfb735f5ec9b1dca5bd6d42b40ed11c88014594ba6b0dd6d3f"],
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      "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/kulp_strauss.py",
      "transform_sha256": "5ddd6351a3e35c3870dc431f28867df83f4c2928638eac13412415e3ad226abb"
    },
    {
      "description": "Checked the file against Table 1 of the corrected article (sha256 912692e7c7a3…, page 3): each of its 24 CoastalDEM totals, median and 90% interval, equals the file's three numbers. Found the 20 sentences that the scope and the cross-checks rely on, each on its page of the article (which page 1 marks 'Corrected: Author correction'), and the 2 on units, exposures and percentiles in the description of the supplementary files (sha256 2b98673da602…).",
      "inputs": ["37a6ab2fc25ec632f8dc7485346d0389d953754b591d6b015c45b5d6de4c0b81", "2b98673da602184f06aa3d86a939ea6b977dfb847181cf979472349695a1a771", "912692e7c7a388dfb735f5ec9b1dca5bd6d42b40ed11c88014594ba6b0dd6d3f"],
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  "published_value": null,
  "schema_version": 1,
  "scope": {
    "baseline": null,
    "basis": "Below the local mean higher-high water line (roughly the high-tide line) after the given sea-level rise. People are counted where they lived in 2010 (LandScan 2010); population growth and migration are not modelled. Land cut off from the sea is left out. Present day is the sea level of 2000, the zero of both projection sets. 2050 and 2100 add the median and the 5th to 95th percentiles of the sea-level rise projected by Kopp et al. 2014 (K14) or Kopp et al. 2017 (K17, unstable Antarctic ice) under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, projections made before the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. A bathtub model: sea walls, levees and other defences are not counted (levee locations are not available globally), so protected coasts such as the Netherlands are included. It measures exposure, not flooding.",
    "bunkers": null,
    "geography": "World: land between 56° south and 60° north, where CoastalDEM is defined, home to 99.7% of the world's population in 2010",
    "gwp": null,
    "lulucf": null
  },
  "superseded_by": null,
  "table": {
    "dims": {
      "projection": ["none", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17"],
      "scenario": ["present", "rcp26", "rcp26", "rcp45", "rcp45", "rcp85", "rcp85", "rcp26", "rcp26", "rcp45", "rcp45", "rcp85", "rcp85"]
    },
    "entity": ["WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD", "WLD"],
    "interval": [null, "90ci", "90ci", "90ci", "90ci", "90ci", "90ci", "90ci", "90ci", "90ci", "90ci", "90ci", "90ci"],
    "lower": [null, 130.0, 150.0, 140.0, 160.0, 140.0, 180.0, 130.0, 140.0, 130.0, 170.0, 130.0, 220.0],
    "period": ["2010", "2050", "2100", "2050", "2100", "2050", "2100", "2050", "2100", "2050", "2100", "2050", "2100"],
    "status": ["final", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection", "projection"],
    "upper": [null, 160.0, 250.0, 170.0, 260.0, 170.0, 310.0, 170.0, 280.0, 180.0, 380.0, 180.0, 520.0],
    "value": [110.0, 150.0, 190.0, 150.0, 200.0, 150.0, 230.0, 150.0, 190.0, 150.0, 250.0, 150.0, 340.0]
  },
  "time_basis": "calendar",
  "title": "People living on land below the high-tide line: estimated at today's sea level, projected for 2050 and 2100, world (Kulp & Strauss 2019)",
  "unit": {
    "code": "million-people",
    "label": "million people",
    "short": "million people"
  },
  "vintage": "Nature Communications 10: 4844 (2019), corrected 12 December 2019"
}