{ "attribution": "Adapted by Environment Dashboard from Kulp, S. A. & Strauss, B. H. (2019). New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Nature Communications 10, 4844. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z. CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Changes: millions of people converted to people.", "description": "Estimated number of people living on land below the local once-a-year coastal flood level (the high-tide line plus the local 1-year flood height), at today's sea level and with the sea levels projected for 2050 and 2100 under low (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emissions, in the world and in 134 countries and territories, from Supplementary Data 1 of Kulp & Strauss (2019), using the CoastalDEM elevation model. Projected values give the median and the 5th to 95th percentile range of the sea-level projections. The file prints each value in millions to two significant figures; it is published here in people. The file leaves out places where the most people exposed is under 0.01 million. Two projection sets are published side by side, never mixed: K14 (Kopp et al. 2014), which the paper calls probabilistic and closely aligned with IPCC findings and which gives the abstract's lead figure (below high tide by 2100 under low emissions); and K17 (Kopp et al. 2017), which adds unstable Antarctic ice, is not probabilistic, and gives the abstract's high-end figures. Both predate the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report. The population is held at its 2010 distribution (LandScan 2010), so future values show where today's people live relative to future seas, not projected populations. The method is a bathtub model that ignores sea walls and other defences, so it measures exposure, not flooding.", "dimensions": [ { "id": "scenario", "label": "Sea level: today's, or projected under an emissions scenario", "values": [ {"id": "present", "label": "Today's sea level (that of 2000)"}, {"id": "rcp26", "label": "RCP2.6 (low emissions)"}, {"id": "rcp45", "label": "RCP4.5 (moderate emissions)"}, {"id": "rcp85", "label": "RCP8.5 (high emissions)"} ] }, { "id": "projection", "label": "Sea-level projection", "values": [ {"id": "none", "label": "None: today's sea level"}, {"id": "k14", "label": "K14 (Kopp et al. 2014): probabilistic, closely aligned with IPCC findings"}, {"id": "k17", "label": "K17 (Kopp et al. 2017): unstable Antarctic ice, not probabilistic"} ] } ], "display": { "decimals": 0 }, "geo_coverage": "mixed", "headline_entity": "WLD", "id": "coastal.kulp-strauss-2019.annual-flood-by-country", "kind": "series", "latest": { "age_bp": null, "dims": { "projection": "none", "scenario": "present" }, "entity": "WLD", "period": "2010", "status": "final", "value": 250000000.0 }, "licence": { "name": "CC BY 4.0", "spdx": "CC-BY-4.0", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" }, "licence_class": "open", "notes": [], "notice": null, "origins": [ {"acquisition": "automatic", "artifact_id": "supplementary-data-1", "bytes": 253535, "citation_full": "Kulp, S.A., Strauss, B.H. 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New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Nat Commun 10, 4844 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z", "date_accessed": "2026-10-12", "date_published": "2019-10-29", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z", "etag": "\"1c83dd29e8d99b1d5ff6a6c73406ac0b\"", "last_modified": "Mon, 04 Dec 2023 17:29:34 GMT", "licence": {"name": "CC BY 4.0", "spdx": "CC-BY-4.0", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"}, "producer": "Scott A. Kulp and Benjamin H. 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New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Nat Commun 10, 4844 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z", "date_accessed": "2026-10-12", "date_published": "2019-10-29", "doi": "10.1038/s41467-019-12808-z", "etag": "\"1745469cbb491e63418a5c0bd7b7bac7\"", "last_modified": "Mon, 04 Dec 2023 17:29:36 GMT", "licence": {"name": "CC BY 4.0", "spdx": "CC-BY-4.0", "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"}, "producer": "Scott A. Kulp and Benjamin H. 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Kept the rows of Place 'World' and of the 134 countries and territories, each with the same 13 sea levels in the same order (present day, then K14 and K17 under RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 for 2050 and 2100), and from each only the three CoastalDEM columns of RL1: land below the future local high tide line plus the local 1-year coastal flood level. The authors' group of small island developing states (SIDS), the Total column and the SRTM, JAXA and MERITDEM columns are not used. The file description says places where the most people exposed is under 0.01 million are left out of the file, so a country absent here has no value, never zero.", "inputs": ["37a6ab2fc25ec632f8dc7485346d0389d953754b591d6b015c45b5d6de4c0b81", "2b98673da602184f06aa3d86a939ea6b977dfb847181cf979472349695a1a771", "912692e7c7a388dfb735f5ec9b1dca5bd6d42b40ed11c88014594ba6b0dd6d3f"], "lock_sha256": "540d352a2533554fbfd8f392b6bae78d1f9332effe729c06b520b2a630450330", "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/kulp_strauss.py", "transform_sha256": "5ddd6351a3e35c3870dc431f28867df83f4c2928638eac13412415e3ad226abb" }, { "description": "Mapped each Place name to the site's entity: 10 names through the explicit alias table for this source (envdash/geo.py), the rest by their exact name in pipeline/geo/entities.csv.", "inputs": ["37a6ab2fc25ec632f8dc7485346d0389d953754b591d6b015c45b5d6de4c0b81", "2b98673da602184f06aa3d86a939ea6b977dfb847181cf979472349695a1a771", "912692e7c7a388dfb735f5ec9b1dca5bd6d42b40ed11c88014594ba6b0dd6d3f"], "lock_sha256": "540d352a2533554fbfd8f392b6bae78d1f9332effe729c06b520b2a630450330", "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/kulp_strauss.py", "transform_sha256": "5ddd6351a3e35c3870dc431f28867df83f4c2928638eac13412415e3ad226abb" }, { "description": "Published the 50th percentile as the value and the 5th and 95th percentiles as the lower and upper ends of a 90% interval, each multiplied by one million to give people (exact decimal arithmetic on the printed digits, so the values keep the file's two significant figures). The present-day row prints '--' for both percentiles, so it has no range.", "inputs": ["37a6ab2fc25ec632f8dc7485346d0389d953754b591d6b015c45b5d6de4c0b81", "2b98673da602184f06aa3d86a939ea6b977dfb847181cf979472349695a1a771", "912692e7c7a388dfb735f5ec9b1dca5bd6d42b40ed11c88014594ba6b0dd6d3f"], "lock_sha256": "540d352a2533554fbfd8f392b6bae78d1f9332effe729c06b520b2a630450330", "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/kulp_strauss.py", "transform_sha256": "5ddd6351a3e35c3870dc431f28867df83f4c2928638eac13412415e3ad226abb" }, { "description": "Dated the present-day row 2010, the year of the LandScan population that every row counts (its sea level is that of 2000, the zero of both projection sets), and the projected rows 2050 and 2100, the years of their sea levels; the population stays as it was in 2010.", "inputs": ["37a6ab2fc25ec632f8dc7485346d0389d953754b591d6b015c45b5d6de4c0b81", "2b98673da602184f06aa3d86a939ea6b977dfb847181cf979472349695a1a771", "912692e7c7a388dfb735f5ec9b1dca5bd6d42b40ed11c88014594ba6b0dd6d3f"], "lock_sha256": "540d352a2533554fbfd8f392b6bae78d1f9332effe729c06b520b2a630450330", "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/kulp_strauss.py", "transform_sha256": "5ddd6351a3e35c3870dc431f28867df83f4c2928638eac13412415e3ad226abb" }, { "description": "Checked the file against Table 1 of the corrected article (sha256 912692e7c7a3…, page 3): each of its 24 CoastalDEM totals, median and 90% interval, equals the file's three numbers. Found the 20 sentences that the scope and the cross-checks rely on, each on its page of the article (which page 1 marks 'Corrected: Author correction'), and the 2 on units, exposures and percentiles in the description of the supplementary files (sha256 2b98673da602…).", "inputs": ["37a6ab2fc25ec632f8dc7485346d0389d953754b591d6b015c45b5d6de4c0b81", "2b98673da602184f06aa3d86a939ea6b977dfb847181cf979472349695a1a771", "912692e7c7a388dfb735f5ec9b1dca5bd6d42b40ed11c88014594ba6b0dd6d3f"], "lock_sha256": "540d352a2533554fbfd8f392b6bae78d1f9332effe729c06b520b2a630450330", "script": "pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/kulp_strauss.py", "transform_sha256": "5ddd6351a3e35c3870dc431f28867df83f4c2928638eac13412415e3ad226abb" } ], "published_value": null, "schema_version": 1, "scope": { "baseline": null, "basis": "Below the local mean higher-high water line plus the local once-a-year coastal flood height (Global Tides and Surge Reanalysis), after the given sea-level rise. 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It measures exposure, not flooding.", "bunkers": null, "geography": "World: land between 56° south and 60° north, where CoastalDEM is defined, home to 99.7% of the world's population in 2010; countries and territories as the authors name them", "gwp": null, "lulucf": null }, "superseded_by": null, "table": { "dims": { "projection": ["none", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "none", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "none", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "none", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "none", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "none", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "none", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k14", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "k17", "none", "k14", "k14", 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31000000.0, 36000000.0, 30000000.0, 34000000.0, 31000000.0, 37000000.0, 31000000.0, 42000000.0, 20000.0, 30000.0, 30000.0, 30000.0, 30000.0, 30000.0, 30000.0, 30000.0, 30000.0, 30000.0, 30000.0, 30000.0, 50000.0] }, "time_basis": "calendar", "title": "People living on land below the yearly coastal flood level: estimated at today's sea level, projected for 2050 and 2100, world and by country (Kulp & Strauss 2019)", "unit": { "code": "people", "label": "people", "short": "people" }, "vintage": "Nature Communications 10: 4844 (2019), corrected 12 December 2019" }