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Climate policy interventions that cut emissions (Stechemesser et al. 2024)

The 63 policy interventions that Stechemesser and colleagues found behind large, sudden drops in a sector's emissions in 41 countries over two decades: for each, the country, the sector (buildings, electricity, industry or transport), the year of the drop and its size, as the percent change in the sector's emissions compared with what the model expects without it. Each value names the policies adopted or tightened within two years before or after the drop. Most successful interventions combine several policies; the drop cannot be credited to one policy alone.

Latest value

−24.6%

41 countries (OECD members and large emerging economies), one value per intervention, 2016. Version Zenodo v4 (2024-07-18).

Climate policy interventions that cut emissions (Stechemesser et al. 2024) (percent change in the sector's emissions at the break)

2 values from 2015 to 2016.
Show as a table
Climate policy interventions that cut emissions (Stechemesser et al. 2024), every value
PeriodSectorCountry groupValue (%)Status
2015ElectricityDeveloped economies−19.0final
2016ElectricityDeveloped economies−24.6final
Adapted by Environment Dashboard from Stechemesser, A. et al. (2024), replication data for "Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades", Science 385, 884–892 (doi:10.1126/science.adl6547), version v4, doi:10.5281/zenodo.12773811, CC BY 4.0. Changes: break coefficients converted from the log scale to percent change, as the authors do; breaks without a matched policy left out. CC BY 4.0.

Notes on individual values

  • Break detected in 2017; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Carbon tax (2018).
  • Break detected in 2019; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Financing mechanism (2018).
  • Break detected in 2006; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Fuel tax (2004); Fuel tax (2007); Fuel tax (2008).
  • Break detected in 2002; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Financing mechanism (2002); Financing mechanism (2004).
  • Break detected in 2008; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Financing mechanism (2008). EU policies: EU-ETS (2007).
  • Break detected in 2009; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Financing mechanism (2008). EU policies: EU-ETS (2007); EU-MEPS (2011).
  • Break detected in 2016; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Renewable auction (2014); Renewable auction (2017).
  • Break detected in 2005; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Carbon tax (2007); Emission trading scheme (2007).
  • Break detected in 2018; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Building code (2019); Performance standard (appliances) (2016).
  • Break detected in 2016; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Emission trading scheme (2014); Financing mechanism (2015); Fossil fuel subsidy reform (2016).
  • Break detected in 2013; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Financing mechanism (2014); Financing mechanism (2015).
  • Break detected in 2004; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Renewable feed in tariff (2002).
  • Break detected in 2011; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Renewable expansion planning (2012).
  • Break detected in 2008; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Performance standard (cars & trucks) (2008).
  • Break detected in 2005; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, EU policies: EU-Labels (2004).
  • Break detected in 2010; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, EU policies: EU-MEPS (2011).
  • Break detected in 2002; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Fuel tax (2003); Public expenditure for rail (2003).
  • Break detected in 2005; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Fuel tax (2003); Public expenditure for rail (2003); Road toll (2005).
  • Break detected in 2020; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Ban & phase out (fossil heatings) (2019).
  • Break detected in 2020; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Ban & phase out (fossil cars) (2018); Fuel tax (2022).
  • Break detected in 2009; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Adoption subsidy (2008); Adoption subsidy (2011); Fuel tax (2008); Vehicle tax (cars) (2008). EU policies: EU-MEPS (2009).
  • Break detected in 2017; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Carbon tax (2017). EU policies: EU-ETS (2018); EU-MEPS (2015).
  • Break detected in 2004; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Fuel tax (2003); Fuel tax (2004); Vehicle tax (cars) (2005).
  • Break detected in 2015; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Air pollution standard (2013); Ban & phase out (coal plants) (2015); Ban & phase out (coal plants) (2017); Emission trading scheme (2014); Emission trading scheme (2015); Renewable auction (2015); Renewable expansion planning (2014); Renewable feed in tariff (2014); Renewable portfolio standard (2013).
  • Break detected in 2016; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Ban & phase out (coal plants) (2015); Ban & phase out (coal plants) (2017); Emission trading scheme (2014); Emission trading scheme (2015); Renewable auction (2015); Renewable expansion planning (2014); Renewable feed in tariff (2014). EU policies: EU-ETS (2018).
  • Break detected in 2012; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Building code (2013); Financing mechanism (2011); Fossil fuel subsidy reform (2012). EU policies: EU-Labels (2013); EU-MEPS (2013).
  • Break detected in 2013; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Building code (2013); Financing mechanism (2011); Fossil fuel subsidy reform (2012). EU policies: EU-Labels (2013); EU-MEPS (2013).
  • Break detected in 2011; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Fuel tax (2011); Public expenditure for rail (2010); Public expenditure for rail (2011). EU policies: EU-MEPS (2009).
  • Break detected in 2013; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Energy efficiency mandate (2012); Energy efficiency mandate (2014); Fossil fuel subsidy reform (2013).
  • Break detected in 2015; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Financing mechanism (2015). EU policies: EU-Labels (2013); EU-MEPS (2013).
  • Break detected in 2009; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Carbon tax (2010). EU policies: EU-MEPS (2011).
  • Break detected in 2015; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Adoption subsidy (2017); Public expenditure for rail (2014).
  • Break detected in 2020; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Ban & phase out (fossil cars) (2019); Carbon tax (2021); Vehicle tax (cars) (2019).
  • Break detected in 2013; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Energy efficiency mandate (2015); Financing mechanism (2014). EU policies: EU-MEPS (2011); EU-MEPS (2015).
  • Break detected in 2004; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Financing mechanism (2004).
  • Break detected in 2008; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Label (cars) (2006); Performance standard (cars & trucks) (2006); Performance standard (cars & trucks) (2010).
  • Break detected in 2020; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Adoption subsidy (2019); Ban & phase out (fossil cars) (2021); Fossil fuel subsidy reform (2020).
  • Break detected in 2015; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Adoption subsidy (2013); Adoption subsidy (2017); Ban & phase out (fossil heatings) (2014); Building code (2016); Fossil fuel subsidy reform (2013).
  • Break detected in 2012; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Renewable portfolio standard (2012); Renewable portfolio standard (2014).
  • Break detected in 2016; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Adoption subsidy (2015); Adoption subsidy (2018); Ban & phase out (fossil cars) (2015); Ban & phase out (fossil cars) (2017); Public expenditure for rail (2014).
  • Break detected in 2018; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Emission trading scheme (2016); Financing mechanism (2019).
  • Break detected in 2009; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Emission trading scheme (2010).
  • Break detected in 2014; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Emission trading scheme (2016); Renewable expansion planning (2016).
  • Break detected in 2003; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Performance standard (electric motors) (2002).
  • Break detected in 2019; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Building code (2020).
  • Break detected in 2013; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Adoption subsidy (2013); Public expenditure for rail (2015).
  • Break detected in 2019; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Ban & phase out (coal plants) (2017); Ban & phase out (coal plants) (2021); Carbon tax (2020); Fossil fuel subsidy reform (2021); Fuel tax (2018); Renewable auction (2019); Renewable expansion planning (2017). EU policies: EU-ETS (2018).
  • Break detected in 2009; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, EU policies: EU-ETS (2007); EU-MEPS (2011).
  • Break detected in 2005; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Vehicle tax (cars) (2003); Vehicle tax (cars) (2007).
  • Break detected in 2016; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Energy efficiency mandate (2015); Performance standard (electric motors) (2015); Performance standard (electric motors) (2017).
  • Break detected in 2003; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, EU policies: EU-Labels (2004).
  • Break detected in 2011; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Fuel tax (2011). EU policies: EU-Labels (2013); EU-MEPS (2009); EU-MEPS (2013).
  • Break detected in 2015; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Financing mechanism (2014). EU policies: EU-Labels (2013); EU-MEPS (2013).
  • Break detected in 2003; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Label (cars) (2004); Public expenditure for rail (2001).
  • Break detected in 2004; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Adoption subsidy (2004); Adoption subsidy (2006); Carbon tax (2003).
  • Break detected in 2005; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Renewable portfolio standard (2003); Renewable portfolio standard (2006); Renewable portfolio standard (2007). EU policies: EU-ETS (2005).
  • Break detected in 2016; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Adoption subsidy (2018); Road toll (2016); Vehicle tax (cars) (2018).
  • Break detected in 2013; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Financing mechanism (2013); Label (appliances) (2011); Label (appliances) (2013); Label (appliances) (2015); Performance standard (appliances) (2011); Performance standard (appliances) (2013).
  • Break detected in 2008; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Adoption subsidy (2006); Adoption subsidy (2009); Adoption subsidy (2010); Performance standard (cars & trucks) (2007); Performance standard (cars & trucks) (2010).
  • Break detected in 2010; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Adoption subsidy (2009); Building code (2011); Label (appliances) (2012).
  • Break detected in 2015; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Label (appliances) (2014); Performance standard (appliances) (2014); Performance standard (appliances) (2016).
  • Break detected in 2020; the authors' matching finds, within 2 years in this country and sector, CAPMF policies adopted or tightened: Carbon tax (2019).

Where it comes from

Producer
Stechemesser, Koch, Mark, Dilger, Klösel, Menicacci, Nachtigall, Pretis, Ritter, Schwarz, Vossen and Wenzel (PIK, MCC Berlin, OECD and others); article in Science, data and code on Zenodo · Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions (Stechemesser et al. 2024), replication data
Version
Zenodo v4 (2024-07-18)
File
https://zenodo.org/api/records/12773811/files/Policy_out.RDS/content
Fetched
2026-10-05 (automatically), 1,285,199 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 a0c67b252c4b671db9306d2dc4e6a341d3d7964041e1c49d56123f2ea17516b6
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
Cite the producer
Stechemesser, A. (2024). Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades. In Science (Version v4, Vol. 385, Issue 6711, pp. 884–892). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12773811. Article: Stechemesser, A., Koch, N., Mark, E., Dilger, E., Klösel, P., Menicacci, L., Nachtigall, D., Pretis, F., Ritter, N., Schwarz, M., Vossen, H., & Wenzel, A. (2024). Science, 385(6711), 884–892. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl6547
Producer
Stechemesser, Koch, Mark, Dilger, Klösel, Menicacci, Nachtigall, Pretis, Ritter, Schwarz, Vossen and Wenzel (PIK, MCC Berlin, OECD and others); article in Science, data and code on Zenodo · Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions (Stechemesser et al. 2024), replication data
Version
Zenodo v4 (2024-07-18)
File
https://zenodo.org/api/records/12773811/files/EU_policies_label_df.csv/content
Fetched
2026-10-05 (automatically), 14,542 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 1bc4d07bf1862a68f4b19472650d49998ca47dfc377ab17ab2a58e36040bd52c
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
Cite the producer
Stechemesser, A. (2024). Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades. In Science (Version v4, Vol. 385, Issue 6711, pp. 884–892). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12773811. Article: Stechemesser, A., Koch, N., Mark, E., Dilger, E., Klösel, P., Menicacci, L., Nachtigall, D., Pretis, F., Ritter, N., Schwarz, M., Vossen, H., & Wenzel, A. (2024). Science, 385(6711), 884–892. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adl6547

What was done to it

  1. Read Policy_out.RDS (sha256 a0c67b252c4b…) with a reader of R's serialization format: 69 negative structural breaks in sectoral emissions across the developed (AC1) and developing (AC6) country samples and four sectors, each with the CAPMF policies the authors matched to it within two years (policy_match_2y, the window used in the paper's main text).

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/action/stechemesser_2024.py · code sha256 f2e468c8d8e67139… · inputs a0c67b252c4b… 1bc4d07bf186…

  2. Read EU_policies_label_df.csv (sha256 1bc4d07bf186…), the EU policies the model controls for, and matched each break to those in force in its country and sector within two years, as the notes of 06_Fig_4.R do by hand: 4 breaks are matched only by an EU policy.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/action/stechemesser_2024.py · code sha256 f2e468c8d8e67139… · inputs a0c67b252c4b… 1bc4d07bf186…

  3. Kept the 63 breaks with at least one matched policy (the paper's successful policy interventions); the other 6 have none and are not published.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/action/stechemesser_2024.py · code sha256 f2e468c8d8e67139… · inputs a0c67b252c4b… 1bc4d07bf186…

  4. Effect size = (e^coefficient − 1) × 100, the authors' conversion of the break coefficient (log scale) to the percent change in the sector's emissions. Each value's note lists the matched policies.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/action/stechemesser_2024.py · code sha256 f2e468c8d8e67139… · inputs a0c67b252c4b… 1bc4d07bf186…

What it covers

Geography
41 countries (OECD members and large emerging economies), one value per intervention
Basis
Detected with machine-learning break detection on sectoral CO2 emissions, 2000–2022; policy data from a July 2023 pre-release of the OECD Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework (CAPMF), plus the EU policies the model controls for. Effect size relative to the model's counterfactual, on the log scale converted to percent.
Unit
percent change in the sector's emissions at the break (%)