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Heat-related deaths, world

Deaths attributable to heat each year worldwide, 1990–2021, as estimated by the Lancet Countdown (indicator 1.1.5). The numbers are modelled from temperature–mortality relationships, not counted.

Latest value

558,304deaths

World, 2021. Version 2025 report.

Heat-related deaths, world (deaths)

32 values from 1990 to 2021.
Show as a table
Heat-related deaths, world, every value
PeriodValue (deaths)Status
1990260,952final
1991309,995final
1992318,293final
1993278,906final
1994354,884final
1995398,883final
1996285,125final
1997258,013final
1998574,110final
1999307,742final
2000278,617final
2001287,022final
2002402,404final
2003461,538final
2004329,810final
2005516,926final
2006390,253final
2007425,991final
2008294,318final
2009455,614final
2010721,588final
2011359,081final
2012504,462final
2013458,251final
2014448,321final
2015509,489final
2016676,006final
2017551,282final
2018507,062final
2019701,303final
2020540,304final
2021558,304final
Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, 2025 report data: indicator 1.1.1 by A. J. Pershing and J. Giguere (attributable heatwave days) and by F. Tartarini and O. Jay (vulnerable populations); indicator 1.1.3 by C. Freyberg, B. Lemke and M. Otto; indicator 1.1.5 by J. Ballester, X. Basagaña and J. Ruiz-Cabrejos. Romanello et al., The Lancet, 2025, doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01919-1. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Where it comes from

Producer
Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change (led by University College London) · Lancet Countdown 2025: heat-related deaths, work hours lost to heat and heatwave exposure
Version
2025 report
Fetched
2026-10-04 (automatically), 137,358 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 f6a18bdec8434973269c095727a13a0375e78b0e674124cf8c9827ec267131e0ETag "2188e-6425ae150d7bd" · Last-Modified Thu, 30 Oct 2025 07:05:54 GMT
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
Cite the producer
Romanello M, Walawender M, Hsu S-C, et al. The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change. Lancet 2025; published online Oct 29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01919-1.

What was done to it

  1. Read the AN column (number of deaths attributable to heat) of the sheet '2025 Report Data_Global' of the indicator 1.1.5 workbook of the Lancet Countdown 2025 report, one value a year 1990–2021. Values are published as in the workbook.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/lancet_countdown.py · code sha256 fd77ef680e809205… · inputs f6a18bdec843…

  2. The workbook's guidance sheet gives the unit of AN as deaths. The share of all deaths (AF) and the regional sheets are not published here.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/lancet_countdown.py · code sha256 fd77ef680e809205… · inputs f6a18bdec843…

What it covers

Geography
World
Basis
Modelled in three stages (Zhao et al. 2021): the association between temperature and mortality estimated in each location, pooled by multilevel meta-regression, and predicted for all countries. Inputs include ERA5 temperatures, UN population data, the World Mortality Dataset and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Unit
deaths (deaths)