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Global sea level rise by 2100 by emissions scenario, likely range (IPCC AR6)

The IPCC's assessed likely range of global mean sea level rise by 2100, relative to 1995–2014, under four emissions scenarios from very low (SSP1-1.9) to very high (SSP5-8.5), medium confidence. Quoted from the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I (2021), statement B.5.3. The same statement says that a rise approaching 2 metres by 2100 under the very high scenario cannot be ruled out because of deep uncertainty in ice-sheet processes (low confidence); that is outside these ranges.

Latest value

0.44m

Global mean, 2100 (projection). Version AR6 WGI (2021).

As published

“Relative to 1995–2014, the likely global mean sea level rise by 2100 is 0.28–0.55 m under the very low GHG emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9); 0.32–0.62 m under the low GHG emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6); 0.44–0.76 m under the intermediate GHG emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5); and 0.63–1.01 m under the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); and by 2150 is 0.37–0.86 m under the very low scenario (SSP1-1.9); 0.46–0.99 m under the low scenario (SSP1-2.6); 0.66–1.33 m under the intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5); and 0.98–1.88 m under the very high scenario (SSP5-8.5) (medium confidence).”

Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers, SPM statement B.5.3, p. 21. Checked word for word against the stored copy of the document every time the data is rebuilt.

Every value

Global sea level rise by 2100 by emissions scenario, likely range (IPCC AR6), every published value
ScenarioEnd of the likely rangePeriodValue (m)Status
SSP1-1.9 (very low GHG emissions)Low end of the likely range21000.28projection
SSP1-1.9 (very low GHG emissions)High end of the likely range21000.55projection
SSP1-2.6 (low GHG emissions)Low end of the likely range21000.32projection
SSP1-2.6 (low GHG emissions)High end of the likely range21000.62projection
SSP2-4.5 (intermediate GHG emissions)Low end of the likely range21000.44projection
SSP2-4.5 (intermediate GHG emissions)High end of the likely range21000.76projection
SSP5-8.5 (very high GHG emissions)Low end of the likely range21000.63projection
SSP5-8.5 (very high GHG emissions)High end of the likely range21001.01projection

Where it comes from

Producer
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group I · Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers
Version
AR6 WGI (2021)
File
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf
Fetched
2026-10-05 (automatically), 3,361,797 bytes
Fingerprint
sha256 37c9fa760757524c8d69630a89cecab9ebcacb66786970a3439da0619875e446ETag "334c05-5e19fcc0ce4c0" · Last-Modified Fri, 17 Jun 2022 07:35:23 GMT
Copies
No Wayback copy recorded yet.
Cite the producer
IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.

What was done to it

  1. Quoted from SPM statement B.5.3, p. 21 of the IPCC AR6 Working Group I Summary for Policymakers. The quote was found in the text of page 21 of the PDF snapshot (sha256 37c9fa760757…) before publishing.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/ocean/ipcc_ar6_sea_level.py · code sha256 f0a4a83b9cd18ab0… · inputs 37c9fa760757…

  2. Value: the likely ranges by 2100 relative to 1995–2014, one per scenario, are published as printed, in metres, each end of a range as its own value (bound likely-low or likely-high). The build reads the ranges from the quote's words and stops unless they equal the published table. The SPM gives no central estimate, and none is computed.

    Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/ocean/ipcc_ar6_sea_level.py · code sha256 f0a4a83b9cd18ab0… · inputs 37c9fa760757…

What it covers

Geography
Global mean
Baseline
1995–2014
Basis
Projections for 2100 under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 (SSP3-7.0 is not in the statement). Likely range: assessed probability 66–100% (IPCC calibrated language); medium confidence. Each end of the range is a separate value; the SPM gives no central estimate.
Unit
metres (m)