Data

Warming from 1995–2014 by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)

Name: Warming from 1995–2014 by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)
License: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

Warming from 1995–2014, projected for 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under low, middle and very high emissions, for every state or province, from the CMIP6 climate models as bias-corrected, downscaled and aggregated by the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Each value is averaged over the land of the place, not weighted by where people live. The value is the median of the models and the range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the models.

Latest value

2.3°C

Each state, province or other first-level region as CCKP draws it on the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. Left out: the 32 areas the World Bank assigns to no country, and the three units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, places with their own values in the country indicator, and their own region where CCKP lists one., 2080–2099 (projection). Version cmip6-x0.25 tas anomaly, fetched 2026-10-16.

Warming from 1995–2014 by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP) (degrees Celsius warmer than the 1995–2014 average)

12 values from 2020–2039 to 2080–2099. Lines: SSP1-2.6, low emissions, SSP2-4.5, middle emissions, SSP5-8.5, very high emissions. The shaded band is the uncertainty range the producer gives.

Show as a table

Warming from 1995–2014 by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP), every value
Period	Emissions scenario	Value (°C)	Range	Status
2020/2039	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	0.6	0.2 to 1.2	projection
2040/2059	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	1.3	0.8 to 1.8	projection
2060/2079	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	1.4	0.7 to 2.2	projection
2080/2099	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	1.2	0.8 to 2.4	projection
2020/2039	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	0.5	0.2 to 0.9	projection
2040/2059	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	1.3	0.8 to 2.0	projection
2060/2079	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	1.8	1.3 to 2.7	projection
2080/2099	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	2.3	1.5 to 3.4	projection
2020/2039	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	0.6	0.0 to 1.1	projection
2040/2059	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	1.8	1.2 to 2.4	projection
2060/2079	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	3.1	2.3 to 4.2	projection
2080/2099	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	4.5	3.2 to 5.9	projection

The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme). CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms.

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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tas_anomaly_annual_2060-2079_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tas_anomaly_annual_2080-2099_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
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What was done to it

Read CCKP's 36 CMIP6 0.25° all_countries_subnationals files of tas (anomaly): the multi-model ensemble median, 10th and 90th percentiles for 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Every file holds the same 246 countries and 3,527 regions.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 19c2420c997b… 4dec40a438f3… 1f2f6943b570… 73fa08886609… 90b993fec911… 4cadb2f8d4c1… 717120f3715a… 1066d7e174ba… fbd80115ec30… 4ede31e172dd… bbc9e59db2e9… ae0fd1b792d8… c7a42b9e3f76… f18c6757d911… a35845f29635… 1655c12b3566… 0ede1307b988… f72e605bdb10… 778efa29c0c1… 86b8e35b9da9… 0742ddf962c7… c8db459ad47a… 8be28f18394a… 29d850cccbd3… 6e098abb3c9d… 73831a92a7fd… 5c8b208f5668… 2a60065b3f72… 4c65c292e7c2… 159373c10b36… 370bf3fccf8a… bd382605dae0… 115c5d324c70… 78471050b8f3… 5e56312e4fd6… 72f6832436a1…
Checked every country's value against its own regions' values in the same file: within the lowest and highest region (±0.01, rounding), or equal to its one region. Declared exceptions, whose national values are published as CCKP prints them, each allowed to lie at most 0.08 °C outside its regions' range: 23 countries (AUS, BES, CAN, CYP, ETH, FIN, GMB, GNB, GTM, HRV, KGZ, MNG, NAM, NER, RWA, SHN, SLE, TGO, TJK, TKM, UMI, USA, UZB, CCKP's codes). In these files 31 of their values lie outside, 14 below the lowest region and 17 above the highest, by up to 0.08 °C (KGZ, ssp245 2060 p90: 3.23 against 3.31 to 3.61). That fits how CCKP describes its ensemble, "calculated from the individual model series": if each area's median and percentiles are taken over the models' own values for that area, a country's median need not lie between the medians of its regions, by a little and either way.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 19c2420c997b… 4dec40a438f3… 1f2f6943b570… 73fa08886609… 90b993fec911… 4cadb2f8d4c1… 717120f3715a… 1066d7e174ba… fbd80115ec30… 4ede31e172dd… bbc9e59db2e9… ae0fd1b792d8… c7a42b9e3f76… f18c6757d911… a35845f29635… 1655c12b3566… 0ede1307b988… f72e605bdb10… 778efa29c0c1… 86b8e35b9da9… 0742ddf962c7… c8db459ad47a… 8be28f18394a… 29d850cccbd3… 6e098abb3c9d… 73831a92a7fd… 5c8b208f5668… 2a60065b3f72… 4c65c292e7c2… 159373c10b36… 370bf3fccf8a… bd382605dae0… 115c5d324c70… 78471050b8f3… 5e56312e4fd6… 72f6832436a1…
Published 3,495 states, provinces and other first-level regions under CCKP's own codes, leaving out the 32 DIS.* units (areas the World Bank assigns to no country): the median as the value and the 10th and 90th percentiles as the range, as printed, with the 20-year window as the period and the emissions scenario as a dimension.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 19c2420c997b… 4dec40a438f3… 1f2f6943b570… 73fa08886609… 90b993fec911… 4cadb2f8d4c1… 717120f3715a… 1066d7e174ba… fbd80115ec30… 4ede31e172dd… bbc9e59db2e9… ae0fd1b792d8… c7a42b9e3f76… f18c6757d911… a35845f29635… 1655c12b3566… 0ede1307b988… f72e605bdb10… 778efa29c0c1… 86b8e35b9da9… 0742ddf962c7… c8db459ad47a… 8be28f18394a… 29d850cccbd3… 6e098abb3c9d… 73831a92a7fd… 5c8b208f5668… 2a60065b3f72… 4c65c292e7c2… 159373c10b36… 370bf3fccf8a… bd382605dae0… 115c5d324c70… 78471050b8f3… 5e56312e4fd6… 72f6832436a1…

What it covers

Geography: Each state, province or other first-level region as CCKP draws it on the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. Left out: the 32 areas the World Bank assigns to no country, and the three units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, places with their own values in the country indicator, and their own region where CCKP lists one.
Baseline: 1995–2014 mean of the same model runs (CCKP's reference period)
Basis: CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (bias-corrected and downscaled to 0.25° by CCKP): the median of the models, with their 10th–90th percentile as the range. The change in annual mean near-surface air temperature from 1995–2014 (CCKP's tas anomaly): each model's change, then the median and the 10th and 90th percentiles of the models. 20-year averages: 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Projections, not forecasts of any one year.
Unit: degrees Celsius warmer than the 1995–2014 average (°C)

Get the numbers

CSV JSON, with full provenance

Licence: CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms (free to reuse with credit). Credit: The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme).

Shared under the World Bank Dataset Terms (CC BY 4.0 with additional terms), including their attribution requirement, which passes to anyone who shares these data further: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

How to cite

Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87 Via Environment Dashboard, https://environmentdashboard.org/data/future/wb-cckp/warming-regions (version cmip6-x0.25 tas anomaly, fetched 2026-10-16, data accessed 2026-10-16).

Sources

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