Data

Longest dry spell of the year by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)

Name: Longest dry spell of the year by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)
License: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

Longest dry spell of the year, 1995–2014 as the models simulate it and projected for 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under low, middle and very high emissions, for every state or province, from the CMIP6 climate models as bias-corrected, downscaled and aggregated by the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Each value is averaged over the land of the place, not weighted by where people live. The value is the median of the models and the range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the models. The 1995–2014 values are the models' simulation of the recent past, not observations.

Latest value

62days

Each state, province or other first-level region as CCKP draws it on the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. Left out: the 32 areas the World Bank assigns to no country, and the three units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, places with their own values in the country indicator, and their own region where CCKP lists one., 2080–2099 (projection). Version cmip6-x0.25 cdd climatology, fetched 2026-10-16.

Longest dry spell of the year by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP) (days in the year's longest run of days with less than 1 mm of precipitation)

13 values from 1995–2014 to 2080–2099. Lines: Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations, SSP1-2.6, low emissions, SSP2-4.5, middle emissions, SSP5-8.5, very high emissions. The shaded band is the uncertainty range the producer gives.

Show as a table

Longest dry spell of the year by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP), every value
Period	Emissions scenario	Value (days)	Range	Status
1995/2014	Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations	64	59 to 70	final
2020/2039	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	63	55 to 70	projection
2040/2059	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	63	55 to 69	projection
2060/2079	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	60	55 to 71	projection
2080/2099	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	64	54 to 72	projection
2020/2039	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	65	55 to 71	projection
2040/2059	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	64	59 to 72	projection
2060/2079	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	62	53 to 75	projection
2080/2099	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	62	55 to 73	projection
2020/2039	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	63	56 to 71	projection
2040/2059	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	65	53 to 72	projection
2060/2079	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	63	51 to 73	projection
2080/2099	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	60	45 to 73	projection

The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme). CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms.

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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_cdd_climatology_annual_2080-2099_median_ssp245_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 115,835 bytes
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 cdd climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_cdd_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p10_ssp245_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 115,478 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 115,811 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 116,101 bytes
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 115,782 bytes
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 cdd climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_cdd_climatology_annual_2060-2079_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 115,502 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 bc18914f81917bc0ded7da38591d92a0d531564aafbc25680dfcc8e8bdcfa46a
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 cdd climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_cdd_climatology_annual_2060-2079_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 116,148 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 cdd climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_cdd_climatology_annual_2080-2099_median_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 115,945 bytes
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 cdd climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_cdd_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 115,523 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 78d0c8ea1189a9aee7db178fa9d452f654d01f886713c838db46d1999a2ecc82
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 cdd climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_cdd_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 116,256 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 874e138ca99a6f52250e738e97b20910da47aa6b5db1f3225e34ddd55c49e8df
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

What was done to it

Read CCKP's 39 CMIP6 0.25° all_countries_subnationals files of cdd (climatology): the multi-model ensemble median, 10th and 90th percentiles for the 1995–2014 historical runs and 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Every file holds the same 246 countries and 3,529 regions.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs c29d90af2e1b… da6e823f10f0… 67d7aca7b9ac… 27e870086632… 9838fd95bd83… 7fc6a4ee790b… 9ef0b7ff9c0c… 7df65fe7b299… ef9872967d8e… b39022c324b8… 58b1b7460c14… 596a3e89d53b… 9f204725a60d… dbc0cc559c1a… f55d713a55a7… a335c29fed80… d0af3ba93e4f… fdf0f16b59ca… b6700ee6c990… 7e9e4f0a3b05… f57555717fe4… 8485d1f9711b… 23abc6f71d60… 395d374efc07… 18fa5e7debb5… 092741f215ad… e131c4c792cd… 302f82b54852… ae68946f73c0… e440af1623cf… 265fb76b8463… 2f3c6dde7579… e6a9ec92a3ba… 9afaf60173a8… bc18914f8191… ee78224ee1da… 038ed9ec4fe5… 78d0c8ea1189… 874e138ca99a…
Checked every country's value against its own regions' values in the same file: within the lowest and highest region (±0.01, rounding), or equal to its one region. Declared exceptions, whose national values are published as CCKP prints them, each allowed to lie at most 1.53 days outside its regions' range: 19 countries (BEL, BES, BHR, BIH, BLR, CYM, DNK, FIN, GGY, JEY, KWT, LIE, LTU, LUX, NLD, QAT, SPM, VCT, VIR, CCKP's codes). In these files 46 of their values lie outside, 21 below the lowest region and 25 above the highest, by up to 1.53 days (QAT, ssp126 2020 p90: 252.88 against 254.41 to 261.66). That fits how CCKP describes its ensemble, "calculated from the individual model series": if each area's median and percentiles are taken over the models' own values for that area, a country's median need not lie between the medians of its regions, by a little and either way.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs c29d90af2e1b… da6e823f10f0… 67d7aca7b9ac… 27e870086632… 9838fd95bd83… 7fc6a4ee790b… 9ef0b7ff9c0c… 7df65fe7b299… ef9872967d8e… b39022c324b8… 58b1b7460c14… 596a3e89d53b… 9f204725a60d… dbc0cc559c1a… f55d713a55a7… a335c29fed80… d0af3ba93e4f… fdf0f16b59ca… b6700ee6c990… 7e9e4f0a3b05… f57555717fe4… 8485d1f9711b… 23abc6f71d60… 395d374efc07… 18fa5e7debb5… 092741f215ad… e131c4c792cd… 302f82b54852… ae68946f73c0… e440af1623cf… 265fb76b8463… 2f3c6dde7579… e6a9ec92a3ba… 9afaf60173a8… bc18914f8191… ee78224ee1da… 038ed9ec4fe5… 78d0c8ea1189… 874e138ca99a…
Published 3,495 states, provinces and other first-level regions under CCKP's own codes, leaving out the 32 DIS.* units (areas the World Bank assigns to no country), and the 2 units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao or Taiwan (CHN.1491879 'Macau, SAR'; CHN.33364910 'Hong Kong, SAR'), places this site publishes under their own codes: the median as the value and the 10th and 90th percentiles as the range, as printed, with the 20-year window as the period and the emissions scenario as a dimension.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs c29d90af2e1b… da6e823f10f0… 67d7aca7b9ac… 27e870086632… 9838fd95bd83… 7fc6a4ee790b… 9ef0b7ff9c0c… 7df65fe7b299… ef9872967d8e… b39022c324b8… 58b1b7460c14… 596a3e89d53b… 9f204725a60d… dbc0cc559c1a… f55d713a55a7… a335c29fed80… d0af3ba93e4f… fdf0f16b59ca… b6700ee6c990… 7e9e4f0a3b05… f57555717fe4… 8485d1f9711b… 23abc6f71d60… 395d374efc07… 18fa5e7debb5… 092741f215ad… e131c4c792cd… 302f82b54852… ae68946f73c0… e440af1623cf… 265fb76b8463… 2f3c6dde7579… e6a9ec92a3ba… 9afaf60173a8… bc18914f8191… ee78224ee1da… 038ed9ec4fe5… 78d0c8ea1189… 874e138ca99a…

What it covers

Geography: Each state, province or other first-level region as CCKP draws it on the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. Left out: the 32 areas the World Bank assigns to no country, and the three units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, places with their own values in the country indicator, and their own region where CCKP lists one.
Basis: CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (bias-corrected and downscaled to 0.25° by CCKP): the median of the models, with their 10th–90th percentile as the range. The year's longest run of consecutive dry days, days with less than 1 mm of precipitation (CCKP's cdd), averaged over the 20 years. A dry spell, not a drought. 20-year averages: 1995–2014 from the historical runs; 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Projections, not forecasts of any one year.
Unit: days in the year's longest run of days with less than 1 mm of precipitation (days)

Get the numbers

CSV JSON, with full provenance

Licence: CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms (free to reuse with credit). Credit: The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme).

Shared under the World Bank Dataset Terms (CC BY 4.0 with additional terms), including their attribution requirement, which passes to anyone who shares these data further: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

How to cite

Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87 Via Environment Dashboard, https://environmentdashboard.org/data/future/wb-cckp/longest-dry-spell-regions (version cmip6-x0.25 cdd climatology, fetched 2026-10-16, data accessed 2026-10-16).

Sources

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