Data

Nights a year that stay at 26 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)

Name: Nights a year that stay at 26 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)
License: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

Nights a year that stay at 26 °C or more, 1995–2014 as the models simulate it and projected for 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under low, middle and very high emissions, for every state or province, from the CMIP6 climate models as bias-corrected, downscaled and aggregated by the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Each value is averaged over the land of the place, not weighted by where people live. The value is the median of the models and the range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the models. The 1995–2014 values are the models' simulation of the recent past, not observations.

Latest value

149nights

Each state, province or other first-level region as CCKP draws it on the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. Left out: the 32 areas the World Bank assigns to no country, and the three units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, places with their own values in the country indicator, and their own region where CCKP lists one., 2080–2099 (projection). Version cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16.

Nights a year that stay at 26 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP) (nights a year with a daily minimum temperature of 26 °C or more)

13 values from 1995–2014 to 2080–2099. Lines: Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations, SSP1-2.6, low emissions, SSP2-4.5, middle emissions, SSP5-8.5, very high emissions. The shaded band is the uncertainty range the producer gives.

Show as a table

Nights a year that stay at 26 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP), every value
Period	Emissions scenario	Value (nights)	Range	Status
1995/2014	Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations	97	81 to 113	final
2020/2039	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	113	72 to 137	projection
2040/2059	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	125	93 to 149	projection
2060/2079	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	132	93 to 154	projection
2080/2099	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	130	92 to 154	projection
2020/2039	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	109	73 to 136	projection
2040/2059	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	130	94 to 153	projection
2060/2079	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	143	101 to 163	projection
2080/2099	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	149	124 to 171	projection
2020/2039	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	115	75 to 138	projection
2040/2059	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	141	104 to 161	projection
2060/2079	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	165	138 to 183	projection
2080/2099	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	182	163 to 204	projection

The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme). CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms.

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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2080-2099_median_ssp245_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 112,483 bytes
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p10_ssp245_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 113,787 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 111,895 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 112,068 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 ec65f53b18150117a2cef5636c53140fe9388a58a68e85aba821be8df68a23aa
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 110,539 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 113,403 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 a0172664ae0274d05295f34d144703fa5752672bbcc053d6a0cd2c7bd6a08001
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 113,513 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 cf9c6f3641983a5077cee9d3ec764915ce4716c4a32ac5f6c4bbabd1b75933b2
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2060-2079_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 111,764 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 139da9f17f7e274714576a26095d00cc12f265d5c90cb9a3ee33445c3791e8a4
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2060-2079_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 114,781 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 1981ebe33b08e6d88339a8b72153e0523fc04f0dafab7ca3bc4136658e3e1b14
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2080-2099_median_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 112,978 bytes
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 115,600 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 61ced7532d8353880fc5a247d4c02a87dd3b8b9d8003f7cd8aeef98d607c507a
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

What was done to it

Read CCKP's 39 CMIP6 0.25° all_countries_subnationals files of tr26 (climatology): the multi-model ensemble median, 10th and 90th percentiles for the 1995–2014 historical runs and 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Every file holds the same 246 countries and 3,527 regions.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 5489ff7e9c73… 79a2264d2931… 9c59531ecf27… f30db593f3af… f81def4159a9… 30eac6a09913… 486d498f6b6b… f5a63da94f91… 06b298f7848e… 406e013f19d7… a0bcb5664389… 6355fc7f9d89… aeeb4f68c1fa… de6999d7b70f… 599683a3ad55… c5e3a32969e2… 168230c7bea3… dde5aadceeaa… 1be2cdbf4b42… 2b394acd036e… 1ab347223c1c… ecefebb46768… c933d9f5359f… 11fd73ceb150… f45dcde76980… d7b786e1d71b… e7946eaf790e… 42bf9dff7788… e014aa389595… ca3152792f9b… ec65f53b1815… a181f156b5c1… a0172664ae02… cf9c6f364198… 139da9f17f7e… 1981ebe33b08… f5ca53acbe05… 166f410b6e23… 61ced7532d83…
Checked every country's value against its own regions' values in the same file: within the lowest and highest region (±0.01, rounding), or equal to its one region. It holds for every country in every file.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 5489ff7e9c73… 79a2264d2931… 9c59531ecf27… f30db593f3af… f81def4159a9… 30eac6a09913… 486d498f6b6b… f5a63da94f91… 06b298f7848e… 406e013f19d7… a0bcb5664389… 6355fc7f9d89… aeeb4f68c1fa… de6999d7b70f… 599683a3ad55… c5e3a32969e2… 168230c7bea3… dde5aadceeaa… 1be2cdbf4b42… 2b394acd036e… 1ab347223c1c… ecefebb46768… c933d9f5359f… 11fd73ceb150… f45dcde76980… d7b786e1d71b… e7946eaf790e… 42bf9dff7788… e014aa389595… ca3152792f9b… ec65f53b1815… a181f156b5c1… a0172664ae02… cf9c6f364198… 139da9f17f7e… 1981ebe33b08… f5ca53acbe05… 166f410b6e23… 61ced7532d83…
Published 3,492 states, provinces and other first-level regions under CCKP's own codes, leaving out the 32 DIS.* units (areas the World Bank assigns to no country), and the 3 units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao or Taiwan (CHN.147295925 'Taiwan Sheng'; CHN.1491879 'Macau, SAR'; CHN.33364910 'Hong Kong, SAR'), places this site publishes under their own codes: the median as the value and the 10th and 90th percentiles as the range, as printed, with the 20-year window as the period and the emissions scenario as a dimension.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 5489ff7e9c73… 79a2264d2931… 9c59531ecf27… f30db593f3af… f81def4159a9… 30eac6a09913… 486d498f6b6b… f5a63da94f91… 06b298f7848e… 406e013f19d7… a0bcb5664389… 6355fc7f9d89… aeeb4f68c1fa… de6999d7b70f… 599683a3ad55… c5e3a32969e2… 168230c7bea3… dde5aadceeaa… 1be2cdbf4b42… 2b394acd036e… 1ab347223c1c… ecefebb46768… c933d9f5359f… 11fd73ceb150… f45dcde76980… d7b786e1d71b… e7946eaf790e… 42bf9dff7788… e014aa389595… ca3152792f9b… ec65f53b1815… a181f156b5c1… a0172664ae02… cf9c6f364198… 139da9f17f7e… 1981ebe33b08… f5ca53acbe05… 166f410b6e23… 61ced7532d83…

What it covers

Geography: Each state, province or other first-level region as CCKP draws it on the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. Left out: the 32 areas the World Bank assigns to no country, and the three units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, places with their own values in the country indicator, and their own region where CCKP lists one.
Basis: CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (bias-corrected and downscaled to 0.25° by CCKP): the median of the models, with their 10th–90th percentile as the range. Days whose minimum temperature stays at 26 °C or more (CCKP's tr26, tropical nights, T-min >= 26 °C). 20-year averages: 1995–2014 from the historical runs; 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Projections, not forecasts of any one year.
Unit: nights a year with a daily minimum temperature of 26 °C or more (nights)

Get the numbers

CSV JSON, with full provenance

Licence: CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms (free to reuse with credit). Credit: The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme).

Shared under the World Bank Dataset Terms (CC BY 4.0 with additional terms), including their attribution requirement, which passes to anyone who shares these data further: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

How to cite

Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87 Via Environment Dashboard, https://environmentdashboard.org/data/future/wb-cckp/hot-nights-26c-regions (version cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16, data accessed 2026-10-16).

Sources

Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data Report a problem with this number