Data

Nights a year that stay at 26 °C or more by country, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)

Name: Nights a year that stay at 26 °C or more by country, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)
License: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

Nights a year that stay at 26 °C or more, 1995–2014 as the models simulate it and projected for 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under low, middle and very high emissions, for every country and territory, from the CMIP6 climate models as bias-corrected, downscaled and aggregated by the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Each value is averaged over the land of the place, not weighted by where people live. The value is the median of the models and the range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the models. The 1995–2014 values are the models' simulation of the recent past, not observations.

Latest value

117nights

Each country or territory as drawn by the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. No world value., 2080–2099 (projection). Version cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16.

Nights a year that stay at 26 °C or more by country, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP) (nights a year with a daily minimum temperature of 26 °C or more)

13 values from 1995–2014 to 2080–2099. Lines: Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations, SSP1-2.6, low emissions, SSP2-4.5, middle emissions, SSP5-8.5, very high emissions. The shaded band is the uncertainty range the producer gives.

Show as a table

Nights a year that stay at 26 °C or more by country, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP), every value
Period	Emissions scenario	Value (nights)	Range	Status
1995/2014	Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations	60	49 to 70	final
2020/2039	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	77	56 to 95	projection
2040/2059	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	87	65 to 111	projection
2060/2079	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	92	67 to 119	projection
2080/2099	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	90	67 to 120	projection
2020/2039	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	75	55 to 95	projection
2040/2059	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	93	70 to 118	projection
2060/2079	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	106	81 to 135	projection
2080/2099	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	117	90 to 149	projection
2020/2039	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	78	55 to 98	projection
2040/2059	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	106	80 to 135	projection
2060/2079	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	139	105 to 177	projection
2080/2099	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	174	133 to 218	projection

The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme). CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms.

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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2080-2099_median_ssp245_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 112,483 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 f45dcde76980dae9fca5d8fc26c560b53385b340ea4ce1b1ebd2fee9ccb1aaa0
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p10_ssp245_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 110,837 bytes
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p90_ssp245_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 113,787 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 e7946eaf790eeae14942be604f8ac2b47c6231fafad73a27d344802e2d8db6b4
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2020-2039_median_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 110,672 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2020-2039_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 109,415 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 e014aa3895959db625ce88ea6f09b3cd7b0e758a53f611f09c389287bc1764a2
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2020-2039_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 111,895 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 ca3152792f9ba05f2c94cc0107b263cb71b5fd9ad871ab517dce15fead9db2ae
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2040-2059_median_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 112,068 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 ec65f53b18150117a2cef5636c53140fe9388a58a68e85aba821be8df68a23aa
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2040-2059_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 110,539 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 a181f156b5c1495f9eb56a30fe1f857afbb06627f24d80351ef256a40c1e849d
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2040-2059_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 113,403 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 a0172664ae0274d05295f34d144703fa5752672bbcc053d6a0cd2c7bd6a08001
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2060-2079_median_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 113,513 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 cf9c6f3641983a5077cee9d3ec764915ce4716c4a32ac5f6c4bbabd1b75933b2
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2060-2079_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 111,764 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 139da9f17f7e274714576a26095d00cc12f265d5c90cb9a3ee33445c3791e8a4
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2060-2079_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 114,781 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 1981ebe33b08e6d88339a8b72153e0523fc04f0dafab7ca3bc4136658e3e1b14
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2080-2099_median_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 114,664 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 f5ca53acbe0582f2915433f11617963b7eb794ee6d876386564817f993bc6ab9
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 112,978 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 166f410b6e23ac349347068b00a6f255d6039131351fdb118e519ee005eaa7c1
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_tr26_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 115,600 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 61ced7532d8353880fc5a247d4c02a87dd3b8b9d8003f7cd8aeef98d607c507a
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

What was done to it

Read CCKP's 39 CMIP6 0.25° all_countries_subnationals files of tr26 (climatology): the multi-model ensemble median, 10th and 90th percentiles for the 1995–2014 historical runs and 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Every file holds the same 246 countries and 3,527 regions.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 5489ff7e9c73… 79a2264d2931… 9c59531ecf27… f30db593f3af… f81def4159a9… 30eac6a09913… 486d498f6b6b… f5a63da94f91… 06b298f7848e… 406e013f19d7… a0bcb5664389… 6355fc7f9d89… aeeb4f68c1fa… de6999d7b70f… 599683a3ad55… c5e3a32969e2… 168230c7bea3… dde5aadceeaa… 1be2cdbf4b42… 2b394acd036e… 1ab347223c1c… ecefebb46768… c933d9f5359f… 11fd73ceb150… f45dcde76980… d7b786e1d71b… e7946eaf790e… 42bf9dff7788… e014aa389595… ca3152792f9b… ec65f53b1815… a181f156b5c1… a0172664ae02… cf9c6f364198… 139da9f17f7e… 1981ebe33b08… f5ca53acbe05… 166f410b6e23… 61ced7532d83…
Checked every country's value against its own regions' values in the same file: within the lowest and highest region (±0.01, rounding), or equal to its one region. It holds for every country in every file.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 5489ff7e9c73… 79a2264d2931… 9c59531ecf27… f30db593f3af… f81def4159a9… 30eac6a09913… 486d498f6b6b… f5a63da94f91… 06b298f7848e… 406e013f19d7… a0bcb5664389… 6355fc7f9d89… aeeb4f68c1fa… de6999d7b70f… 599683a3ad55… c5e3a32969e2… 168230c7bea3… dde5aadceeaa… 1be2cdbf4b42… 2b394acd036e… 1ab347223c1c… ecefebb46768… c933d9f5359f… 11fd73ceb150… f45dcde76980… d7b786e1d71b… e7946eaf790e… 42bf9dff7788… e014aa389595… ca3152792f9b… ec65f53b1815… a181f156b5c1… a0172664ae02… cf9c6f364198… 139da9f17f7e… 1981ebe33b08… f5ca53acbe05… 166f410b6e23… 61ced7532d83…
Published every country and territory (246), mapping CCKP's codes to the site's entities (ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 codes as they are, KSV, CCKP's code for Kosovo, as KOS): the median as the value and the 10th and 90th percentiles as the range, as printed, with the 20-year window as the period and the emissions scenario as a dimension.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 5489ff7e9c73… 79a2264d2931… 9c59531ecf27… f30db593f3af… f81def4159a9… 30eac6a09913… 486d498f6b6b… f5a63da94f91… 06b298f7848e… 406e013f19d7… a0bcb5664389… 6355fc7f9d89… aeeb4f68c1fa… de6999d7b70f… 599683a3ad55… c5e3a32969e2… 168230c7bea3… dde5aadceeaa… 1be2cdbf4b42… 2b394acd036e… 1ab347223c1c… ecefebb46768… c933d9f5359f… 11fd73ceb150… f45dcde76980… d7b786e1d71b… e7946eaf790e… 42bf9dff7788… e014aa389595… ca3152792f9b… ec65f53b1815… a181f156b5c1… a0172664ae02… cf9c6f364198… 139da9f17f7e… 1981ebe33b08… f5ca53acbe05… 166f410b6e23… 61ced7532d83…

What it covers

Geography: Each country or territory as drawn by the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. No world value.
Basis: CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (bias-corrected and downscaled to 0.25° by CCKP): the median of the models, with their 10th–90th percentile as the range. Days whose minimum temperature stays at 26 °C or more (CCKP's tr26, tropical nights, T-min >= 26 °C). 20-year averages: 1995–2014 from the historical runs; 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Projections, not forecasts of any one year.
Unit: nights a year with a daily minimum temperature of 26 °C or more (nights)

Get the numbers

CSV JSON, with full provenance

Licence: CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms (free to reuse with credit). Credit: The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme).

Shared under the World Bank Dataset Terms (CC BY 4.0 with additional terms), including their attribution requirement, which passes to anyone who shares these data further: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

How to cite

Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87 Via Environment Dashboard, https://environmentdashboard.org/data/future/wb-cckp/hot-nights-26c-countries (version cmip6-x0.25 tr26 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16, data accessed 2026-10-16).

Sources

Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data Report a problem with this number