Data

Days a year at 35 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)

Name: Days a year at 35 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)
License: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

Days a year at 35 °C or more, 1995–2014 as the models simulate it and projected for 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under low, middle and very high emissions, for every state or province, from the CMIP6 climate models as bias-corrected, downscaled and aggregated by the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Each value is averaged over the land of the place, not weighted by where people live. The value is the median of the models and the range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the models. The 1995–2014 values are the models' simulation of the recent past, not observations.

Latest value

147days

Each state, province or other first-level region as CCKP draws it on the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. Left out: the 32 areas the World Bank assigns to no country, and the three units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, places with their own values in the country indicator, and their own region where CCKP lists one., 2080–2099 (projection). Version cmip6-x0.25 hd35 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16.

Days a year at 35 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP) (days a year with a daily maximum temperature of 35 °C or more)

13 values from 1995–2014 to 2080–2099. Lines: Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations, SSP1-2.6, low emissions, SSP2-4.5, middle emissions, SSP5-8.5, very high emissions. The shaded band is the uncertainty range the producer gives.

Show as a table

Days a year at 35 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP), every value
Period	Emissions scenario	Value (days)	Range	Status
1995/2014	Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations	102	90 to 115	final
2020/2039	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	113	92 to 138	projection
2040/2059	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	125	98 to 159	projection
2060/2079	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	129	98 to 168	projection
2080/2099	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	133	98 to 170	projection
2020/2039	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	110	88 to 131	projection
2040/2059	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	123	98 to 157	projection
2060/2079	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	133	105 to 171	projection
2080/2099	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	147	106 to 196	projection
2020/2039	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	113	90 to 134	projection
2040/2059	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	136	103 to 172	projection
2060/2079	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	164	113 to 206	projection
2080/2099	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	196	125 to 237	projection

The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme). CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms.

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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hd35_climatology_annual_2080-2099_median_ssp245_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 111,262 bytes
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hd35 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 111,002 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 109,549 bytes
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 112,200 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 cc31f581466f064e5488c6486bc23290f1635ce16d3d853b27abd6408fdcce7f
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 112,202 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 110,581 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 113,431 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hd35 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hd35_climatology_annual_2080-2099_median_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 113,396 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hd35 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 111,453 bytes
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hd35 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hd35_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 114,737 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 27deb839230fbe7055919684696ad309c003c3ecb879b2b4a0ff6b4bfa8cd5d0
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

What was done to it

Read CCKP's 39 CMIP6 0.25° all_countries_subnationals files of hd35 (climatology): the multi-model ensemble median, 10th and 90th percentiles for the 1995–2014 historical runs and 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Every file holds the same 246 countries and 3,527 regions.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 238acfa0f6cc… 27d4dc3ea464… 0afe77b931df… 56022c113996… 505676dadad8… 94eff9467808… 516adc8762dc… 397158997093… 39bb32f21141… ec1d22b7bb74… 3fcfb219382b… 19ad6e69cc7a… c94680628135… 50fa750291db… 27eba0601e5f… eedb4c59f99c… a9cbac7afe9b… f72ea5466ca1… 323022b77035… 72d49d46ff9c… 0fa72500fc7f… 3d567e4da3d6… 89adbd081f83… 0782f946d5c8… 5f1647fad5d5… 7dce728a722e… 4ee036f8d093… 273f2fd3a463… ae4f4224e0f1… 66f066d67ff2… f4d48cbc13d4… 0f62fd33116e… cc31f581466f… 291585a538af… 21d856daf2da… ce313d844627… a9fb37c3ae8d… 41b8785890db… 27deb839230f…
Checked every country's value against its own regions' values in the same file: within the lowest and highest region (±0.01, rounding), or equal to its one region. It holds for every country in every file.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 238acfa0f6cc… 27d4dc3ea464… 0afe77b931df… 56022c113996… 505676dadad8… 94eff9467808… 516adc8762dc… 397158997093… 39bb32f21141… ec1d22b7bb74… 3fcfb219382b… 19ad6e69cc7a… c94680628135… 50fa750291db… 27eba0601e5f… eedb4c59f99c… a9cbac7afe9b… f72ea5466ca1… 323022b77035… 72d49d46ff9c… 0fa72500fc7f… 3d567e4da3d6… 89adbd081f83… 0782f946d5c8… 5f1647fad5d5… 7dce728a722e… 4ee036f8d093… 273f2fd3a463… ae4f4224e0f1… 66f066d67ff2… f4d48cbc13d4… 0f62fd33116e… cc31f581466f… 291585a538af… 21d856daf2da… ce313d844627… a9fb37c3ae8d… 41b8785890db… 27deb839230f…
Published 3,492 states, provinces and other first-level regions under CCKP's own codes, leaving out the 32 DIS.* units (areas the World Bank assigns to no country), and the 3 units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao or Taiwan (CHN.147295925 'Taiwan Sheng'; CHN.1491879 'Macau, SAR'; CHN.33364910 'Hong Kong, SAR'), places this site publishes under their own codes: the median as the value and the 10th and 90th percentiles as the range, as printed, with the 20-year window as the period and the emissions scenario as a dimension.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs 238acfa0f6cc… 27d4dc3ea464… 0afe77b931df… 56022c113996… 505676dadad8… 94eff9467808… 516adc8762dc… 397158997093… 39bb32f21141… ec1d22b7bb74… 3fcfb219382b… 19ad6e69cc7a… c94680628135… 50fa750291db… 27eba0601e5f… eedb4c59f99c… a9cbac7afe9b… f72ea5466ca1… 323022b77035… 72d49d46ff9c… 0fa72500fc7f… 3d567e4da3d6… 89adbd081f83… 0782f946d5c8… 5f1647fad5d5… 7dce728a722e… 4ee036f8d093… 273f2fd3a463… ae4f4224e0f1… 66f066d67ff2… f4d48cbc13d4… 0f62fd33116e… cc31f581466f… 291585a538af… 21d856daf2da… ce313d844627… a9fb37c3ae8d… 41b8785890db… 27deb839230f…

What it covers

Geography: Each state, province or other first-level region as CCKP draws it on the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. Left out: the 32 areas the World Bank assigns to no country, and the three units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, places with their own values in the country indicator, and their own region where CCKP lists one.
Basis: CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (bias-corrected and downscaled to 0.25° by CCKP): the median of the models, with their 10th–90th percentile as the range. Days with a daily maximum temperature of 35 °C or more (CCKP's hd35, Tmax >= 35 °C). 20-year averages: 1995–2014 from the historical runs; 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Projections, not forecasts of any one year.
Unit: days a year with a daily maximum temperature of 35 °C or more (days)

Get the numbers

CSV JSON, with full provenance

Licence: CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms (free to reuse with credit). Credit: The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme).

Shared under the World Bank Dataset Terms (CC BY 4.0 with additional terms), including their attribution requirement, which passes to anyone who shares these data further: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

How to cite

Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87 Via Environment Dashboard, https://environmentdashboard.org/data/future/wb-cckp/hot-days-35c-regions (version cmip6-x0.25 hd35 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16, data accessed 2026-10-16).

Sources

Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data Report a problem with this number