Data

Days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)

Name: Days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)
License: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

Days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more, 1995–2014 as the models simulate it and projected for 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under low, middle and very high emissions, for every state or province, from the CMIP6 climate models as bias-corrected, downscaled and aggregated by the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Each value is averaged over the land of the place, not weighted by where people live. The value is the median of the models and the range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the models. The 1995–2014 values are the models' simulation of the recent past, not observations.

Latest value

96days

Each state, province or other first-level region as CCKP draws it on the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. Left out: the 32 areas the World Bank assigns to no country, and the three units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, places with their own values in the country indicator, and their own region where CCKP lists one., 2080–2099 (projection). Version cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16.

Days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP) (days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more)

13 values from 1995–2014 to 2080–2099. Lines: Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations, SSP1-2.6, low emissions, SSP2-4.5, middle emissions, SSP5-8.5, very high emissions. The shaded band is the uncertainty range the producer gives.

Show as a table

Days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more by state or province, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP), every value
Period	Emissions scenario	Value (days)	Range	Status
1995/2014	Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations	28	19 to 42	final
2020/2039	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	46	26 to 80	projection
2040/2059	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	59	36 to 99	projection
2060/2079	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	65	32 to 106	projection
2080/2099	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	66	36 to 109	projection
2020/2039	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	43	25 to 79	projection
2040/2059	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	63	35 to 105	projection
2060/2079	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	81	50 to 123	projection
2080/2099	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	96	59 to 135	projection
2020/2039	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	47	26 to 72	projection
2040/2059	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	75	46 to 119	projection
2060/2079	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	120	81 to 152	projection
2080/2099	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	150	114 to 177	projection

The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme). CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms.

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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2080-2099_median_ssp245_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 108,443 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 01fc028e6e325199f57c4082c5d055a9c3aafc2cfa8fd981b0d38b9f8c70e2f5
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p10_ssp245_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p90_ssp245_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 110,817 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2040-2059_median_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 107,610 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 7785247d2abc9dfbe030b136cd2779381ddfe9a22bd6bc76a44ff654a8390858
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Fingerprint: sha256 70368c6ec0023ab2463f47e2de6d797b64a753a77559a6a956a3de4aaad89210
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 109,872 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 d8d71e574bfb2b4faeb39f6899a28952b803442ec57bb3e4d99ced56efc00e89
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2060-2079_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 107,736 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 bd309c181250dc63a5709663fd4754d130d743c965f941e5f33b5ebef9d98199
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2060-2079_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 112,859 bytes
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2080-2099_median_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 112,793 bytes
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 109,744 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 61489178f1a38b4a9f92f55db287b77640abc93ddb312ade7b5cd355e4c3d90a
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 114,684 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 29707970d1a7ecdb3627efd656e67c73edf5e1d79fe7e89f8205ba1483bc8a04
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

What was done to it

Read CCKP's 39 CMIP6 0.25° all_countries_subnationals files of hi39 (climatology): the multi-model ensemble median, 10th and 90th percentiles for the 1995–2014 historical runs and 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Every file holds the same 246 countries and 3,528 regions.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs e2d128ee046a… 15126265930e… fa140e1701ea… 1aa78f44700a… ef0cc2f26010… 62e40e2ba764… 7cf6077c55f0… 90f319a6aa71… 4eba83db1c9a… 3ce30d5b943f… b947382418e1… f656d27aa596… 773bfd48e09a… 0e6f1448f4de… 95352e6397de… df03955f1682… 478a08a73740… d3edd04fc26b… 6c6b539de19f… 46ed0476edbc… a96c878fca7c… c78fef43559e… 81fc33319e31… c073139fa4d9… 01fc028e6e32… 19b887c834a8… 7c2d14d85ebb… fbaaa9054b67… 05c511981cce… 747d317c2732… 7785247d2abc… 70368c6ec002… d8d71e574bfb… cc111e7857b5… bd309c181250… 9006b18520be… 6f2476f3ed61… 61489178f1a3… 29707970d1a7…
Checked every country's value against its own regions' values in the same file: within the lowest and highest region (±0.01, rounding), or equal to its one region. It holds for every country in every file.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs e2d128ee046a… 15126265930e… fa140e1701ea… 1aa78f44700a… ef0cc2f26010… 62e40e2ba764… 7cf6077c55f0… 90f319a6aa71… 4eba83db1c9a… 3ce30d5b943f… b947382418e1… f656d27aa596… 773bfd48e09a… 0e6f1448f4de… 95352e6397de… df03955f1682… 478a08a73740… d3edd04fc26b… 6c6b539de19f… 46ed0476edbc… a96c878fca7c… c78fef43559e… 81fc33319e31… c073139fa4d9… 01fc028e6e32… 19b887c834a8… 7c2d14d85ebb… fbaaa9054b67… 05c511981cce… 747d317c2732… 7785247d2abc… 70368c6ec002… d8d71e574bfb… cc111e7857b5… bd309c181250… 9006b18520be… 6f2476f3ed61… 61489178f1a3… 29707970d1a7…
Published 3,493 states, provinces and other first-level regions under CCKP's own codes, leaving out the 32 DIS.* units (areas the World Bank assigns to no country), and the 3 units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao or Taiwan (CHN.147295925 'Taiwan Sheng'; CHN.1491879 'Macau, SAR'; CHN.33364910 'Hong Kong, SAR'), places this site publishes under their own codes: the median as the value and the 10th and 90th percentiles as the range, as printed, with the 20-year window as the period and the emissions scenario as a dimension.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs e2d128ee046a… 15126265930e… fa140e1701ea… 1aa78f44700a… ef0cc2f26010… 62e40e2ba764… 7cf6077c55f0… 90f319a6aa71… 4eba83db1c9a… 3ce30d5b943f… b947382418e1… f656d27aa596… 773bfd48e09a… 0e6f1448f4de… 95352e6397de… df03955f1682… 478a08a73740… d3edd04fc26b… 6c6b539de19f… 46ed0476edbc… a96c878fca7c… c78fef43559e… 81fc33319e31… c073139fa4d9… 01fc028e6e32… 19b887c834a8… 7c2d14d85ebb… fbaaa9054b67… 05c511981cce… 747d317c2732… 7785247d2abc… 70368c6ec002… d8d71e574bfb… cc111e7857b5… bd309c181250… 9006b18520be… 6f2476f3ed61… 61489178f1a3… 29707970d1a7…

What it covers

Geography: Each state, province or other first-level region as CCKP draws it on the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. Left out: the 32 areas the World Bank assigns to no country, and the three units CCKP lists under China for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, places with their own values in the country indicator, and their own region where CCKP lists one.
Basis: CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (bias-corrected and downscaled to 0.25° by CCKP): the median of the models, with their 10th–90th percentile as the range. Days with a heat index of 39 °C or more (CCKP's hi39). The heat index, as the US National Weather Service defines it, is how hot it feels once humidity is counted. 20-year averages: 1995–2014 from the historical runs; 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Projections, not forecasts of any one year.
Unit: days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more (days)

Get the numbers

CSV JSON, with full provenance

Licence: CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms (free to reuse with credit). Credit: The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme).

Shared under the World Bank Dataset Terms (CC BY 4.0 with additional terms), including their attribution requirement, which passes to anyone who shares these data further: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

How to cite

Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87 Via Environment Dashboard, https://environmentdashboard.org/data/future/wb-cckp/heat-index-39c-days-regions (version cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16, data accessed 2026-10-16).

Sources

Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data Report a problem with this number