Data

Days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more by country, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)

Name: Days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more by country, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP)
License: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

Days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more, 1995–2014 as the models simulate it and projected for 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under low, middle and very high emissions, for every country and territory, from the CMIP6 climate models as bias-corrected, downscaled and aggregated by the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Each value is averaged over the land of the place, not weighted by where people live. The value is the median of the models and the range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the models. The 1995–2014 values are the models' simulation of the recent past, not observations.

Latest value

56days

Each country or territory as drawn by the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. No world value., 2080–2099 (projection). Version cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16.

Days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more by country, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP) (days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more)

13 values from 1995–2014 to 2080–2099. Lines: Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations, SSP1-2.6, low emissions, SSP2-4.5, middle emissions, SSP5-8.5, very high emissions. The shaded band is the uncertainty range the producer gives.

Show as a table

Days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more by country, projected for 20-year windows to 2099 (CMIP6, World Bank CCKP), every value
Period	Emissions scenario	Value (days)	Range	Status
1995/2014	Model simulation of 1995–2014, not observations	11	6 to 17	final
2020/2039	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	22	11 to 36	projection
2040/2059	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	29	16 to 50	projection
2060/2079	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	33	16 to 57	projection
2080/2099	SSP1-2.6, low emissions	32	16 to 59	projection
2020/2039	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	20	11 to 36	projection
2040/2059	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	33	18 to 57	projection
2060/2079	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	44	25 to 75	projection
2080/2099	SSP2-4.5, middle emissions	56	31 to 90	projection
2020/2039	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	22	11 to 36	projection
2040/2059	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	42	24 to 70	projection
2060/2079	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	74	45 to 115	projection
2080/2099	SSP5-8.5, very high emissions	114	72 to 167	projection

The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme). CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms.

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Fingerprint: sha256 7785247d2abc9dfbe030b136cd2779381ddfe9a22bd6bc76a44ff654a8390858
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Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 109,872 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 d8d71e574bfb2b4faeb39f6899a28952b803442ec57bb3e4d99ced56efc00e89
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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2060-2079_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 107,736 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 bd309c181250dc63a5709663fd4754d130d743c965f941e5f33b5ebef9d98199
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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2060-2079_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
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Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
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File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2080-2099_median_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 112,793 bytes
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p10_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 109,744 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 61489178f1a38b4a9f92f55db287b77640abc93ddb312ade7b5cd355e4c3d90a
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

Producer: World Bank Group · Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data
Version: cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16
File: https://cckpapi.worldbank.org/cckp/v1/cmip6-x0.25_climatology_hi39_climatology_annual_2080-2099_p90_ssp585_ensemble_all_mean/all_countries_subnationals?_format=json
Fetched: 2026-10-16 (automatically), 114,684 bytes
Fingerprint: sha256 29707970d1a7ecdb3627efd656e67c73edf5e1d79fe7e89f8205ba1483bc8a04
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Cite the producer: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87

What was done to it

Read CCKP's 39 CMIP6 0.25° all_countries_subnationals files of hi39 (climatology): the multi-model ensemble median, 10th and 90th percentiles for the 1995–2014 historical runs and 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Every file holds the same 246 countries and 3,528 regions.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs e2d128ee046a… 15126265930e… fa140e1701ea… 1aa78f44700a… ef0cc2f26010… 62e40e2ba764… 7cf6077c55f0… 90f319a6aa71… 4eba83db1c9a… 3ce30d5b943f… b947382418e1… f656d27aa596… 773bfd48e09a… 0e6f1448f4de… 95352e6397de… df03955f1682… 478a08a73740… d3edd04fc26b… 6c6b539de19f… 46ed0476edbc… a96c878fca7c… c78fef43559e… 81fc33319e31… c073139fa4d9… 01fc028e6e32… 19b887c834a8… 7c2d14d85ebb… fbaaa9054b67… 05c511981cce… 747d317c2732… 7785247d2abc… 70368c6ec002… d8d71e574bfb… cc111e7857b5… bd309c181250… 9006b18520be… 6f2476f3ed61… 61489178f1a3… 29707970d1a7…
Checked every country's value against its own regions' values in the same file: within the lowest and highest region (±0.01, rounding), or equal to its one region. It holds for every country in every file.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs e2d128ee046a… 15126265930e… fa140e1701ea… 1aa78f44700a… ef0cc2f26010… 62e40e2ba764… 7cf6077c55f0… 90f319a6aa71… 4eba83db1c9a… 3ce30d5b943f… b947382418e1… f656d27aa596… 773bfd48e09a… 0e6f1448f4de… 95352e6397de… df03955f1682… 478a08a73740… d3edd04fc26b… 6c6b539de19f… 46ed0476edbc… a96c878fca7c… c78fef43559e… 81fc33319e31… c073139fa4d9… 01fc028e6e32… 19b887c834a8… 7c2d14d85ebb… fbaaa9054b67… 05c511981cce… 747d317c2732… 7785247d2abc… 70368c6ec002… d8d71e574bfb… cc111e7857b5… bd309c181250… 9006b18520be… 6f2476f3ed61… 61489178f1a3… 29707970d1a7…
Published every country and territory (246), mapping CCKP's codes to the site's entities (ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 codes as they are, KSV, CCKP's code for Kosovo, as KOS): the median as the value and the 10th and 90th percentiles as the range, as printed, with the 20-year window as the period and the emissions scenario as a dimension.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/future/cckp_projections.py · code sha256 5c4361ac9b2983cd… · inputs e2d128ee046a… 15126265930e… fa140e1701ea… 1aa78f44700a… ef0cc2f26010… 62e40e2ba764… 7cf6077c55f0… 90f319a6aa71… 4eba83db1c9a… 3ce30d5b943f… b947382418e1… f656d27aa596… 773bfd48e09a… 0e6f1448f4de… 95352e6397de… df03955f1682… 478a08a73740… d3edd04fc26b… 6c6b539de19f… 46ed0476edbc… a96c878fca7c… c78fef43559e… 81fc33319e31… c073139fa4d9… 01fc028e6e32… 19b887c834a8… 7c2d14d85ebb… fbaaa9054b67… 05c511981cce… 747d317c2732… 7785247d2abc… 70368c6ec002… d8d71e574bfb… cc111e7857b5… bd309c181250… 9006b18520be… 6f2476f3ed61… 61489178f1a3… 29707970d1a7…

What it covers

Geography: Each country or territory as drawn by the World Bank's official boundaries: the area-weighted mean of the 0.25° grid cells inside it, averaged over the land, not weighted by where people live. No world value.
Basis: CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (bias-corrected and downscaled to 0.25° by CCKP): the median of the models, with their 10th–90th percentile as the range. Days with a heat index of 39 °C or more (CCKP's hi39). The heat index, as the US National Weather Service defines it, is how hot it feels once humidity is counted. 20-year averages: 1995–2014 from the historical runs; 2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079 and 2080–2099 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Projections, not forecasts of any one year.
Unit: days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more (days)

Get the numbers

CSV JSON, with full provenance

Licence: CC BY 4.0 with the World Bank Dataset Terms (free to reuse with credit). Credit: The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/128g-6s70): Copernicus Climate Change Service ERA5. The World Bank: Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree (doi:10.57966/b54h-7s87): CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (World Climate Research Programme).

Shared under the World Bank Dataset Terms (CC BY 4.0 with additional terms), including their attribution requirement, which passes to anyone who shares these data further: https://www.worldbank.org/ext/en/legal/terms-conditions/datasets

How to cite

Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Observed Climate Data, ERA5 0.25-Degree, DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/128g-6s70. Climate Change Knowledge Portal: Projected Climate Data, CMIP6 0.25-Degree. DOI: https://doi.org/10.57966/b54h-7s87 Via Environment Dashboard, https://environmentdashboard.org/data/future/wb-cckp/heat-index-39c-days-countries (version cmip6-x0.25 hi39 climatology, fetched 2026-10-16, data accessed 2026-10-16).

Sources

Climate Change Knowledge Portal country climate data Report a problem with this number