Data
Regions where hot extremes, heavy rain and drought have increased since the 1950s, with the IPCC's confidence in a human contribution (IPCC AR6)
Of the 45 inhabited regions the IPCC uses, how many have seen an increase, a decrease, low agreement in the type of change, or too little data and literature to say, in hot extremes, heavy precipitation and agricultural and ecological drought from the 1950s to 2021, as assessed in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021, Figure SPM.3). Increases are split by the IPCC's confidence that human influence contributed: high, medium, or low because studies disagree. Calculated by counting the regions in the IPCC data; the totals of each type of change match the counts printed on the published figure, and the split by confidence is counted from the same data. Regions differ in size and population, and each is assessed as a whole. 'Limited data' and 'low agreement' mean the evidence is missing or mixed, not that nothing changed, and a confidence level says how sure the IPCC is that people contributed, not how large the contribution was.
Latest value
41regions
45 inhabited IPCC AR6 regions, 1950–2021. Version v20221116.
Regions where hot extremes, heavy rain and drought have increased since the 1950s, with the IPCC's confidence in a human contribution (IPCC AR6) (of the 45 inhabited IPCC AR6 regions)
Show as a table
| Period | Extreme | Type of observed change since the 1950s, and confidence in a human contribution | Value (regions) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950/2021 | Hot extremes | Increase | 41 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Hot extremes | Increase, high confidence in a human contribution | 23 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Hot extremes | Increase, medium confidence in a human contribution | 16 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Hot extremes | Increase, low confidence in a human contribution (due to limited agreement) | 2 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Hot extremes | Decrease | 0 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Hot extremes | Low agreement in the type of change | 2 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Hot extremes | Limited data and/or literature | 2 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Heavy precipitation | Increase | 19 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Heavy precipitation | Increase, high confidence in a human contribution | 1 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Heavy precipitation | Increase, medium confidence in a human contribution | 1 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Heavy precipitation | Increase, low confidence in a human contribution (due to limited agreement) | 17 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Heavy precipitation | Decrease | 0 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Heavy precipitation | Low agreement in the type of change | 8 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Heavy precipitation | Limited data and/or literature | 18 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought | Increase | 12 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought | Increase, high confidence in a human contribution | 0 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought | Increase, medium confidence in a human contribution | 2 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought | Increase, low confidence in a human contribution (due to limited agreement) | 10 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought | Decrease | 1 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought | Low agreement in the type of change | 28 | final |
| 1950/2021 | Agricultural and ecological drought | Limited data and/or literature | 4 | final |
Where it comes from
- Producer
- IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit; archived by the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis · IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.3 data
- Version
- v20221116
- Fetched
- 2026-10-12 (automatically), 3,747 bytes
- Fingerprint
- sha256 6fa8b59c58e1c4babf6b43196881d9fbb742fb6cc43b59049657fac727acbbe6ETag "6374ff57-ea3" · Last-Modified Wed, 16 Nov 2022 15:18:47 GMT
- Cite the producer
- Otto, F.E.L.; Zhang, X.; Seneviratne, S.I. (2023): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.3 (v20221116). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 03 July 2023. doi:10.5285/dc6c126c95b1445d8e66d6b9f62054d4. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
- Producer
- IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit; archived by the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis · IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.3 data
- Version
- v20221116
- Fetched
- 2026-10-12 (automatically), 5,125 bytes
- Fingerprint
- sha256 48ea9588d9ad42a5858cac3faa21f00c5e4f1662e8d407be9cc060a35de4740dETag "6374ff58-1405" · Last-Modified Wed, 16 Nov 2022 15:18:48 GMT
- Copies
- No Wayback copy recorded yet.Our copy of the exact file
- Cite the producer
- Otto, F.E.L.; Zhang, X.; Seneviratne, S.I. (2023): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.3 (v20221116). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 03 July 2023. doi:10.5285/dc6c126c95b1445d8e66d6b9f62054d4. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
- Producer
- IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit; archived by the NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis · IPCC AR6 WGI Figure SPM.3 data
- Version
- v20221116
- Fetched
- 2026-10-12 (automatically), 5,404 bytes
- Fingerprint
- sha256 ce11b5890050f2d3fe163f8c79692dd95fdc1d4c016207bf631dedad87866ffbETag "6374ff58-151c" · Last-Modified Wed, 16 Nov 2022 15:18:48 GMT
- Cite the producer
- Otto, F.E.L.; Zhang, X.; Seneviratne, S.I. (2023): Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - data for Figure SPM.3 (v20221116). NERC EDS Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, 03 July 2023. doi:10.5285/dc6c126c95b1445d8e66d6b9f62054d4. IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.
What was done to it
Read the three panel files of Figure SPM.3 (CEDA version v20221116: SPM3_panel_a.csv, SPM3_panel_b.csv, SPM3_panel_c.csv), BADC-CSV, one row per region. Checked that each has the 45 inhabited AR6 regions listed in its comments, once each, the same in all three; that all three say 'years 1950 to 2021' and that each region is assessed as a whole for the 1950s to the present. Every count is dated 1950/2021.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm3.py · code sha256 918a60ea876d508d… · inputs 6fa8b59c58e1… 48ea9588d9ad… ce11b5890050…
Counted the regions in each type of observed change (Increase, Decrease, Low agreement in the type of change, Limited data and/or literature), and split the increases by the confidence in a human contribution (High, Medium, Low due to limited agreement), using the producer's labels. The files word the low-agreement category as SPM3_panel_a.csv 'Low agreement in type of change'; SPM3_panel_b.csv 'Low agreement in the type of change'; SPM3_panel_c.csv 'Low agreement in the type of change'; each is read as the printed figure's 'Low agreement in the type of change'. Checked that the four types add up to the regions and the split adds up to the increases. No region is weighted by area or population.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm3.py · code sha256 918a60ea876d508d… · inputs 6fa8b59c58e1… 48ea9588d9ad… ce11b5890050…
Checked the pairings the split relies on: every region with low agreement in the type of change has 'Low due to limited agreement' confidence, every region with limited data has 'Low due to limited evidence', and every increase has High, Medium or 'Low due to limited agreement'. Regions with a decrease, and their confidence: agricultural and ecological drought: NAU (Low due to limited agreement).
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm3.py · code sha256 918a60ea876d508d… · inputs 6fa8b59c58e1… 48ea9588d9ad… ce11b5890050…
Checked against the published figure (IPCC AR6 WGI SPM, p. 10): the count of each type of change printed beside its legend is a publisher cross-check. The split of increases by confidence is not printed there; it is counted from the IPCC data.
Code: pipeline/src/envdash/transforms/impacts/ipcc_ar6_spm3.py · code sha256 918a60ea876d508d… · inputs 6fa8b59c58e1… 48ea9588d9ad… ce11b5890050…
What it covers
- Geography
- 45 inhabited IPCC AR6 regions
- Basis
- Counts of the IPCC AR6 WGI reference regions in each assessed category, for the world; no regional values are published. Expert assessment of observed change since the 1950s (files: years 1950 to 2021), each region as a whole. Categories and labels are the IPCC's; only counts are computed.
- Unit
- of the 45 inhabited IPCC AR6 regions (regions)